Argument65 好久没写了，大家拍拍，谢谢您

安婧UID: 2156480

Argument65 (2006.1.16  678)

The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

提纲：
1、        国产奶酪的销量大！＝占的市场份额大
2、        最新店！＝所有店
3、        调查的可信度（样本小，被调查人员的背景可能过于专业）
4、        减少进口奶酪的储存份额！＝可以增多利润

The arguer wants to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses to improve profits in all of our stores, due to the high sale of the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin(W) in our newest store, and the survey of the Cheeses of the World magazine. But the arguments of the president are unbelievable.

First, one of the arguer’s evident to prove the domestic cheese is popular now is that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from W, but the president did not show us the proportion of the five kinds of cheeses and the reason of the fashion of the domestic cheddar cheeses from W. On the one hand, the high sale of those cheeses does not mean a large proportion among all sorts of the cheeses. The president did not give us any data of imported cheese and other domestic cheese, so we can assume that the sale of the domestic cheddar cheeses from W is only a little larger than other cheese and the proportion of them is very small among all kinds of cheeses in the store. On the other hand, the cheddar cheese is only a variety of cheeses, perhaps the taste is different from other cheeses, and this taste is popular currently. In this way, we cannot say that other domestic cheese of other taste is popular too. Therefore, this evident does not make me believe that the all of the domestic cheese is popular.

Second, the high sale quantity of the newest store does not equal a high quantity of all the chain stores. Maybe, the sell staffer of W gave the newest store some profits for a large sale while they did not do the same thing in other chain stores; hence the store would try its best to sell their product as many as possible. When a consumer wants to buy a kind of cheese but does not know which cheese is delicious, the salesperson would commend the W’s cheese instead of other company’s cheeses. Then the sale would be larger than others’ easily. Thereby, this fact cannot prove that the domestic cheese sells well in all the chain stores.

Third, other evident of the president to prove the domestic cheese is popular is a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which indicated an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers; however, this survey is not valuable. Above all, the investigated people of the survey are not representative, because the objects of survey are only the subscribers of the magazine. A Cheese of the World magazine is a professional magazine, so the investigated people are experts or at least the people who is care of cheeses instead of the ordinary consumers. And the number of the reader of Cheeses of the World magazine is much smaller than the number of the whole consumers. Moreover, the president did not show us the background of the subscribers. Perhaps, they are the employees of the cheese factories and want to increase the repute of domestic cheeses, so they balloted for the domestic ones.

Finally, the president pointed that they can discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses to improve profits in all of their stores, because their company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. But, this advise seems not necessary based the reason which given by the arguer. Even if the evident can bear out the conclusion, there is no need to discontinue stocking many of their imported cheeses, because, it is impossible that the imported cheeses having no market. Once the consumers want to buy imported cheese only, the store will cannot do this business. So, it cannot improve profits in this way.

To sum up, the evident above cannot make me agree with the president without some necessary information, such as the sale proportion of the domestic cheeses in the newest store, the reason of the high sale and the background of the investigated people.