agument59有拍必应！有链必回！

ChunyanLi2005UID: 2124266

59. The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.   
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occured in 1720, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged explosure to the Sun. "
限时未完成 后补的                                                                    459 words

The speaker showed records about the six worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years and indicate a relationship between the flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, and then he or she made a conclusion that people who are easily get flu should avoid prolonged explosure to the sun. At the first glance, the analysis seems reasonable, but after further and prudent consideration, we can easily find out that there are many flaws in it.

First of all, the speaker just showed the records that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics happened at the time when there were heavy sunspot activities,  during the past 300years. Although the six records are the worst in worldwide, does them strong enough to indicate that when with sunspot activity the flu epidemics is more easily to happen? Probably, these worst flu epidemics just occured at the years with heavy sunspot activities by accident. If it is the case,  heavy sunspot activities will have nothing to do with flu epidemics.

Additionally, the speaker also has not given any information of at what period did the flu epidemics occured in these years. Was it happening just during the time, the sunspot activity at the most heavy time. Based on the lack of the information, it is possible that the flu epidemics prevailed in the winter of the year, while the heavy sunspot activity primarily occured in the summer. In that case, how can the speaker indicate that the sunspot activity has greatly affected the flu epidemics.

Finally, even if there is actually a relationship between the flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, the speaker still fails to indicate that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged explore to the sun. In the years with heavy sunspot activity, there may be some element in the light bad for people at particular risk for the flu. And often, there is more ultraviolent radiation in these years. But in usual years, when the flu epidemics still prevail, the light may just comfort for people. Additionally, there is no records and no evidence of survey to demonstrate that people after prolonged explore to the sun are easier to get flu.

In conclusion, without enough evidence and further survey, the speaker cannot easily conclude that people at risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged explosure to the sun. There may be other reasons that the speaker has not pointed out, for the flu epidemics. For exaple, society has not put much emphasis on the sanitation in the public place is possible to cause the flu epidemics, or governent has not done well on controlling the source of infection. So to prevent the flu epidemics, we need further investigate to find the true reasons for this phenomenon.

copia_cloudUID: 2182278

The speaker showed records about the six worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years and indicate a relationship between the flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, and then he or she made a conclusion that people who are easily get flu should avoid prolonged explosure to the sun. At the first glance, the analysis seems reasonable, but after further and prudent consideration, we can easily find out that there are many flaws in it.开头还可以再短点，毕竟时间比较紧

First of all, the speaker just showed the records that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics happened at the time when there were heavy sunspot activities,  during the past 300years. Although the six records are the worst in worldwide, does them strong enough to indicate that when with sunspot activity the flu epidemics is more easily to happen? Probably, these worst flu epidemics just occured at the years with heavy sunspot activities by accident. If it is the case,  heavy sunspot activities will have nothing to do with flu epidemics.基本上讲清楚了，也没什么模版的痕迹，但感觉TS不明显，可以把第一句稍微改一下指出作者错误

Additionally, the speaker also has not given any information of at what period did the flu epidemics occured in these years. Was it happening just during the time, the sunspot activity at the most heavy time. Based on the lack of the information, it is possible that the flu epidemics prevailed in the winter of the year, while the heavy sunspot activity primarily occured in the summer. In that case, how can the speaker indicate that the sunspot activity has greatly affected the flu epidemics.这段感觉和上段的意思差不多啊，都在将太阳活动和流感没关系，是否可以合并呢？

Finally, even if there is actually a relationship between the flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, the speaker still fails to indicate that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged explore to the sun. In the years with heavy sunspot activity, there may be some element in the light bad for people at particular risk for the flu. And often, there is more ultraviolent radiation in these years. But in usual years, when the flu epidemics still prevail, the light may just comfort for people. Additionally, there is no records and no evidence of survey to demonstrate that people after prolonged explore to the sun are easier to get flu. 好象没说透，你的意思是不是说晒太阳有时候对人有好处，所以不一定要避免晒太阳？最后一句感觉有点脱节，又回到头两段取了

In conclusion, without enough evidence and further survey, the speaker cannot easily conclude that people at risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged explosure to the sun. There may be other reasons that the speaker has not pointed out, for the flu epidemics. For exaple, society has not put much emphasis on the sanitation in the public place is possible to cause the flu epidemics, or governent has not done well on controlling the source of infection. So to prevent the flu epidemics, we need further investigate to find the true reasons for this phenomenon.最后一段太长了，把例子用到中间去吧
感觉楼主基本脱离了模版，而且讲的很具体了，但思路上看起来不是特别清晰，建议看看斑竹的同主题写作的思路分析。大家一起加油！有空批批我的，呵呵https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... &extra=page%3D1

ChunyanLi2005UID: 2124266