argument117 【加州阳光】第四次作业 ★from叶子★

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Argument117

The author of this argument recommends Valu-Mart stores to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies based on a recent survey that indicates the work-at-home trend. The author further predicts that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart. However, close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's assertion.

A threshold problem involves the validity of the survey cited in the argument which is potentially problematic in three aspects. First, the author provides no information about the number of respondents. The fewer respondents, the more unreliable the survey result will become. Lacking this evidence, it is entirely possible that the people responded to the survey are too few to be representative of the overall population of Valu-Mart's customers. Second, occupational profiles of the respondents are not clearly stated in the argument. Without knowing what type of work these respondents are involved in, it is hard to make the widest guess at the related facility and tools they need at home. Third, the survey contains no residential information of these respondents. It is likely that the survey is conducted in a place where Valu-Mart has no chain store. Therefore, the work-at-home trend will have no relationship with Valu-Mart's sales improvement. Viewed from the three aspects of the unreliable survey, the author cannot rely on it to draw his conclusion unless he proves its validity.

Another problem that undermines the logic of this argument is that author rests on dubious assumption that the work-at-home trend will lead to an increase of demand in home machines and supplies. It is entirely possible that these respondents have already worked at home for some time and therefore they have had home machines and supplies. In this case, even if more people will have more workload at home, they might have no demand for additional office supplies. Perhaps in today's computerized business environment, the majority of the respondents are working on computers and internet, thus traditional office machines and supplies provided by Valu-Mart might be unnecessary in their homes. Without ruling out all those possibilities, the author cannot assume the cause-and-effect relationship between the work-at-home trend and the sales increase in home supplies.

The argument is also weakened by the author's dubious prediction that office-supply department will stand out to be the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores. There is no evidence indicating that the stock increase of office machines and suppliers will lead to significant sales increase. For instance, if products stored fail to meet customers' demand, their sales will witness no improvement. Various factors including consumer preference, product quality, service etc will contribute to sales increase of home supplies. Based on the above analysis, it will be extremely difficult for the office-supply departments to be the most profitable component in Valu-Mart since office-supply does not have impressive sales history and other departments might also competing vigorously for profits.

In conclusion, the author's reasoning does not warrant his recommendation and prediction. To strengthen the argument and make it logically acceptable, the author would have to demonstrate the reliability of the survey result and the relationship between the work-at-home trend and the demand of increase. Moreover, the author also has to provide evidence regarding how .Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.