我修改的27天ARGUMENT复习计划

pewcg8UID: 2143213

Argument复习计划

每天的题目讨论Task, 要练习的Argument题目我都已经拟定好了, 在后面详细的Argument每日Task中; 标红的是要全篇练习的题目。
后边的数字是对应的机经频率．
根据我对机经频率的分析，并考虑３％的误差率，并考虑全年的总频（因为听说ARGUMENT的题库是在整个的２４２道题目中抽取）以２６次总频为界限，小于２６次的属于低频率题目，其他高于２６次的题目算做高频正好共４０题，在下面的计划中，原来飞跃版的计划用红色表示出了建议练习的题目，我发现其中有好多都是０次频率的题目，由于在许多TASK中都是类似题目，所以我重新按照机经选择了一些题目作为重点推荐练习题目，这些题目用蓝色标出，两者重合的地方，我对原来的红色加粗．经过计划，共２７个TASK,原则上是一天一个，但可以一天两个甚至三个．
说明：如果时间紧张，可以将机经频率定到３７进行重新的筛选．(完整版本请下载word附件)注意：本计划修改自飞跃GRE作文50天复习冲刺计划，由Feiba制定，机经的频率选择寄托天下的＂20060717作文机经＂，转载请注明出处．

1. 由此及彼--一个东西怎么怎么好, 或者其采用了什么措施, 我们也应该这样做--这是比较引论中的一个子类别
TASK1:
002(房地产)－６０
016(政府政策)－１
025(城市经济发展策略)－２４
039(教育)－２１
063(公园)－１
079－１
094－４
097－２７
099－２５
102－０
119(政府政策—交通、环保)－７
125(教育捐款)－０
建议写００２和０９７，不过不强制要求．


2. 决策解释--我们应该采用某个决策, 然后列出一系列的理由,或者我们做出了什么决策和行动, 是因为如下原因

TASK2
001(开建新店)－５
006(商业推销)－１１
007(政府选举)－３
013(投资分析)－４
021(产品调整)－１７
029(含比较引论,政府选举)－１４
042(政府政策)－３５
043(含比较引论,公司策略调整)－０
084－０
098－１７
100－１６
111(产品调整)－２３
112(工业用地与环保)－０
127(监督员工)－１２
149(产品服务推荐)－３
156(产品推广)－１３
171(产品市场定位/调整)－０
176(公司方案/新产品)－１１
178(商业管理/制度调整)－１７
217(市场推销)－２０
226(商业运作、扩大再生产)－６
235(市场策略/目标受众)－２２
240(教育)－５
242(教育)－２２
建议写４２而不是１


3. 比较引论--主要通过两个方面的比较,得出一结论, 提出一建议,措施
TASK３TASK4
003(教育就业)－０
004(房地产)－２１
017(选择合作公司)－７４
036(人文研究)－２３
038(产品推销)－４９
041(合作公司选择)－７
051(医疗)－５０
067(两地间的比较)－３６
077－０
082－５
建议写１７和３８和５１以及３６

TASK5TASK6
092－０
093(合作伙伴选择)－０
109(政府政策)－２８
110(产品推广)－４
116(公司政策调整)－０
121(员工培训)－１
124(产品定位)－０
126(睡眠与健康)－０
128(投资项目先后的选择)－０
131(环保)－４０
建议写１０９和１３１

TASK7
159(生活用电)－２４
161(阅读)－１６
162(饮食与健康)－１０
166(药品)－１８
167(健康)－２２
179(选择合作公司)－２９
186(生产力提高)－９
193(教育/作业布置)－８
199(消费行为)－０
203(医疗)－２１
建议写１７９

TASK8TASK9
205(抵制犯罪)－２６
209(公司领导人更换)－１４
214(教育投入)－２８
220(电视与平面媒体)－３７
221(教育/师资)－１
230(城市规划)－２２
233(商业生产)－８
234(生活/健康)－２０
238(教育就业)－２１
241(商业)－６
建议写２１４和２２０

4. 现象分析, 得出结论或提出建议--有这些现象, 通过分析,可以得出如此结论

TASK10
005(市场分析)－０
011(垃圾循环利用)－１９
015(公司前景分析与股票操作)－１１
019(广告宣传)－１
022(公司政策调整)－０
023(市场策略)－３
026(人事选拔)－３２
028(学校政策)－１
032(市场分析)－０
033(考古)－０
建议写２６

TASK11
034(饮食与健康)－２５
035(药品与健康)－９
037(人文研究)－３
040(公司策略调整)－１０
045(野生动物)－３８
046(动物)－２４
047(地理研究)－５５
048(健康)－３４
049(饮食与健康)－０
050(地理)－３
建议写４５和４７和４８

TASK12
052(学校招生)－０
053(孩子性格决定因素)－３８
055(含比较引论,交通堵塞)－７
056(艺术收藏)－１７
058(考古)－０
059(健康)－１６
060(养宠物与老年健康)－６
062(硬币Vs纸币)－１
064(教育课程设置)－２
066(市场分析)－０
068(政府财政支持)－１０
070(交通安全)－０
071(工业)－３６
072－１
073(经营方向调整)－１
074(教育)－１
075(健康)－０
076(产品推广)－２０
078－０
083(市场分析)－０
建议写53和７１

TASK1３TASK14
088－１３
095(教育财政支持)－１
103(高速公路)－０
104(医疗)－０
105(社交活动与健康)－０
107(经济发展)－０
108(工业与环保)－１
113(产品与健康)－０
114(健康)－０
118(会议地点选择)－０
123(饮食与健康)－０
130(商家市场预测)－１
134(作家，出版)－１
137(市政)－４３
139(含观点说明,家庭教育与学校教育)－１
142(健康与饮食)－２８
144(教育与捐款)－１１
145(健康)－４２
147(产品销售)－８０
148(政府选举/施政纲领)－０
这里建议写１４７和１３７和１４２和１４５也很重要

TASK15TASK16TASK17
150(污染与动物保护)－１４
154(健康)－１７
160(研究发现)－２０
170(食品与健康)－４４
173(市场定位/杂志内容调整)－２
185(开源节流)－１９
194(个人特性与职业选择/调查研究)－５
200(医疗)－４３
202(人与物种灭绝)－１７
204(农业生产/市场调整)－１２
207(环境与物种)－６
208(扩大再生产的市场调研)－１６
219(市场定位)－０
237(政府商业)－３２
建议写１７０和２００和２３７


5. 观点说明--开门见山或者最后给出观点, 或是预测趋势,或是对某做的判断, 给出一系列的理由

TASK18
008(商业)－１
020(含比较引论, 市政交通)－１５
024(公司选址)－０
030(市政)－２
031(含比较引论,交通安全)－０
044(公司策略)－６
054(产品推广)－１
057(药品)－２８
061(教育设施投入)－１５
085－１０
089(高速公路限速)－１５
091－０
096－０
129(健康)－２１
132(含比较引论,员工管理)－０
建议写５７

TASK19TASK20TASK21TASK22
133(含比较引论,教育)－１９
138(学校服务)－０
140(教育师资)－４８
143(公司裁员)－４２
151(政府领导人)－２１
157(方案推荐—城市建设)－７
158(居住环境)－２
163(社区建筑)－３７
165(食品与健康)－２５
168(健康)－２３
172(学校招生)－２
174(教育，女校与男女混读学校)－３８
175(教育/课程选择)－３
177(社区)－３７
180(产品推销)－２８
183(失业)－１
187(饮食与健康)－８
188(研究结果/男与女的差异)－３
189(教育政策/就业)－０
191(远程教育)－１６
192(政府政策/城镇合并)－１８
196(电视/形象塑造)－０
198(翻译)－０
201(健康)－１５
206(教育/学习与体育)－０
210(生产/机器人与人)－１６
211(教育就业)－６
213(市场策略调整)－１２
建议写１４０，１４３，１７４，１８０

TASK23
216(居住环境/市场推广)－３６
223(城市经济)－０
225(政府选举)－６
227(城市管理、政府政策)－１６
228(城市与郊区)－１８
229(废物处理/健康)－０
231(教育管理)－１
236(教育/学科)－１
239(含比较引论,居住环境)－２３
正入飞跃所建议的，２１６

6. 描述现象/问题, 现象分析, 提出应对措施-问题解决

TASK24
009(含比较引论, 教育就业)－２３
010(农业, 政府宏观调控)－１７
012(含比较引论, 生产安全)－１５
014(商业行为随市场调整)－２
018(含比较引论,高速公路限速)－１０
027(人事政策)－１
065(营销策略的调整)－４９
069(动物)－０
080－３
081(健康)－０
086(学校)－１
087(市场分析及公司应对措施)－０
090－０
101－１
106(工业与环保)－１
建议写６５

TASK25TASK26
115(市场调整)－０
117(公司政策调整)－５６
120(交通安全-政府政策)－１３
122(节约用电—政府政策)－１
135(公司策略调整—媒体)－５
136(教育政策)－０
141(工业与环境)－３１
146(教育/图书馆)－０
152(环保与旅游)－９
153(电视暴力与青少年犯罪)－２９
155(教育)－０
164(学校宿舍)－１
169(老师)－１４
181(教育)－０
182(产品调整与市场策略)－７
建议写１１７，１４１，１５３

TASK27
184(图书馆)－０
190(市场策略调整/音乐会)－２８
195(出版/市场、经营策略调整)－１０
197(教育之使命)－０
212(市场策略调整/销售/广告)－１５
215(政府政策与经济)－０
218(市场定位/调整)－６
222(教育就业)－１５
224(产品销售)－１
232(市场/广告)－３０
正如飞跃的建议，２３２并且建议写１９０

SerendipUID: 2227806

顶~~~

dicmiUID: 183392

据我考试还有26天~~~

pewcg8UID: 2143213

这个计划可以适当的缩短的,原则上是一天写一题,如果你可以一天两题或者有的题目写过的话,那么可以加快速度的，我本来的计划是20天,怕太变态了大家受不了,就给弄成27天了.

pewcg8UID: 2143213

我再罗嗦几句,计划的安排原则上是保证每天10道左右的提纲分析外加一道全文写作,具体使用的时候请先在这些题目上标注出你已经写过的文章,这样的话可能有的天的计划就没有题目可以写了,这个时候就可以合并两个计划,甚至三个计划.总之要根据自己的情况进行修改.有些task我安排的时候一个task出现了多道可以写的题目,如果时间不够,可以主要写一道,其他几道写一些重点段落就可以了.毕竟一个task甚至几个task的题目之间都是有联系的.

pewcg8UID: 2143213

应要求补充一个ISSUE的复习计划.

jallineUID: 2192970

pewcg8的东西很赞的

晴天丫头UID: 2225690

顶一个!

很有条理
很有指导意义的说

pewcg8UID: 2143213

大家注意也要感谢一些Feiba同志！

只爱小不点UID: 2189745

感谢楼主，感谢FEIBA～～呵呵

hedou992UID: 2199425

赞一个!
谢谢lz!谢谢feiba!

pewcg8UID: 2143213

Argument六大类题目总结

1．专题１：由此及彼--一个东西怎么怎么好, 或者其采用了什么措施, 我们也应该这样做--这是比较引论中的一个子类别
题目特点：一般题目一定有两个类似的主题,A和B,一般作者首先提出A采取了一种政策，或者采取了什么措施，之后说明这个措施得到了一定的效果，或者A发生了一些变化，作者认为肯定是A造成的，因此，B也应该采取类似的措施．作者还可能提供一些证据证明这些措施可能对B是有效的．

破题思路剖析：
题目的关键一个是类比，一个是政策和效果，攻击的时候类比和因果这里都是核心的攻击．就是找区别质疑类比，还有找他因质疑措施和效果之间的关系．一般的题目作者还会再给留一到两点攻击的地方，比如和经济有关的质疑profit问题，和政策有关的质疑政策的实施是否可行或者是否有负面效应，有调查的地方质疑调查．．．．．．
理一下顺序，就是A的结果不一定是A的政策引起的，即使是A的引起的，B由于和A存在区别，是否能使用呢？即使能使用，是否要完全照搬，或者是否有负作用？是否有更好的办法呢？

２．专题２：决策解释--我们应该采用某个决策, 然后列出一系列的理由,或者我们做出了什么决策和行动, 是因为如下原因．
题目特点：
１．        一般是文章的开头（结尾也可以）提出我们应该做什么什么？（更傻的作者还在后边说：我们这样做，一定会怎么怎么样的！――这就留下了一个可以攻击的）
２．        然后作者给出一些证据来说明这个决策的可行性．

破题思路剖析：
一定要把最后的决策记清楚，然后拿这个决策做标准，看作者提供的证据和决策有没有关系，作者的证据可能说明的是别的问题，或者不能支持作者的这个决策，这些论据一般都有２－３个批驳点，甚至最后的结论中有一点也可以批驳．（就是１中说到的）

３．        专题３：比较引论--主要通过两个方面的比较,得出一结论, 提出一建议,措施
题目特点：
题目中会出现两个对等的事物，作者通过对这两个对等的事物比较，得到一些结论，一般是我们应该选择A或者B,或者从对比中得到一个新的结论，偶尔会有第三者加入比较．

破题思路剖析：
和专题１类似，类比的地方一定可以攻击，还可以攻击同时或者时序性因果．结论一定要关注是否扩大化．对于比较，一定要看是否偷换了概念，或者没有做到完全的对照．

４．        专题４：现象分析, 得出结论或提出建议--有这些现象, 通过分析,可以得出如此结论
题目特点：
题目中描述的是一种现象，作者会针对这个现象提供一些别的证据，然后和现象一起提出了最后的结论，一般还可能进行推广．

破题思路剖析：
一样的思路，现象和其他证据到结论要质疑，结论的推广几乎是必错！要注意结论和现象或者证据之间很可能有距离或者概念的偷换．

５．        专题５：观点说明--开门见山或者最后给出观点, 或是预测趋势,或是对某做的判断, 给出一系列的理由．
题目特点：
类似４，提出的观点是作者的结论，然后作者给出一系列理由支持观点，最后可能还有推论．
破题思路剖析：
一样的思路，现象和其他证据到结论要质疑，结论的推广几乎是必错！要注意结论和现象或者证据之间很可能有距离或者概念的偷换．结合其他几类一起分析。

６．        专题６：描述现象/问题, 现象分析, 提出应对措施-问题解决
题目特点：
作者描述一个发生的现象，可能同时再描述另外一个现象，然后结合一些证据，说明作者对这个现象的判断．

破题思路剖析：
一般同时发生的这两个现象作者会建立因果，这个因果肯定要批驳，其他的问题和以前一样，老问题了．

pewcg8UID: 2143213

专题１：由此及彼--一个东西怎么怎么好, 或者其采用了什么措施, 我们也应该这样做--这是比较引论中的一个子类别
题目列表：
002(房地产)－６０
016(政府政策)－１
025(城市经济发展策略)－２４
039(教育)－２１
063(公园)－１
079－１
094－４
097－２７
099－２５
102－０
119(政府政策—交通、环保)－７
125(教育捐款)－０


００２
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting."
七年前，附近的Brookville社区的业主实施了一系列关于该社区的庭院应如何布置以及房屋应涂何种颜色的规定。从那以后，Brookville的地产平均价格翻了三番。为使Deerhaven Acres的地产升值，我们也应该对于景观和房屋涂色实施自己的规定。
题目分析：
分析：（７月第二版）
论据１：Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted
论据２：average property values have tripled in Brookville
结论：we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting
逻辑关系：
七年前Brookville实行了一系列的关于庭院布置和房屋染色的规定＞房价因此提高了三倍＞为了提高房价Deerhaven也应该实施类似措施
１．        论据１，２之间的因果关系不一定成立，有可能是其他原因导致了房价的升高，甚至有可能这些政策阻碍了房价继续的升高．这里举出比较具体的他因分析就可以．
２．        七年前的情况是否适合现在的情况呢？现在Brookville的房价如何呢？现在房地产市场的情况如何呢？过去的情况不能拿来现在使用．
３．        重点攻击类比的问题．两个城市的情况是否一样．如果Brookville是一个旅游城市，那么这些政策可能会招徕更多的游客，但是如果Deerhaven不是这样的城市，那么这些政策可能对Deerhaven收效甚微．同时这些装饰可能会花费比较大，不一定符合Deerhaven的居民收入水平．

补遗：
１．而地价的上涨与其建筑也有关系，或许可能brookville是个逐渐发展形成的dnowtwon,而Deerhaven Acres是一片绿地，公园什么的．那就还有：城市的规划方向问题
２．关键是不是说地价的上升和经济总值上升有比例关系,就是说是不是自然货币的上涨导致地价上涨,跟其他外因毫无关系．有可能是通货膨胀Inflation & devaluation
３．还有如果Deerhaven Acres市有很多有历史意义的古建筑,民居,那么统一颜色会破坏这些历史建筑的原由风貌  


０１６The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucia’s public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
（Gaming and gambling in the United States have undergone a great boom. During the past decade most states have expanded legalized gaming, including regulated casino-style games and lotteries.说明gambling包括了lottery）
两年前我们相邻的州Lucria开展了州际彩票活动来增加用于教育和公共医疗的财政收入。现在，Lucria对于每个小学生的平均开支比我们多，Lucria的公共医疗体系接待的人数也比我们的多很多。如果我们也建立一套和Lucria类似的彩票系统，其盈利可以被用来改我们的教育系统和公共医疗体系。新的彩票无疑会成，因为在我们的首府举办的一次调查显示Impeccant的居每人每年用于博彩的平均支出已经达到$50。
分析：
七月第二版：
论据１：Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health
论据２：Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do
论据３：Lucia’s public health program treats far more people than our state's program does
论据４：a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling
结论：If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program.
逻辑推理：
两年前采取了政策＞现在Lucria对小学生的花费比我们多同时Lucria的公共医疗体系接待的人数也比我们的多很多（作者暗含假设是这些钱都是彩票的收入）／调查证明我们的居民对于彩票有一定支出＞我们应该采取类似的政策
１．        论据２，３是否说明了收入的增加？（至少作者是这么认为的），对小学生的投入增加可能是由对其他学龄段的支出减少造成的，造成Lucria的公共医疗体系接待的人数也比我们的多很多可能是由于那里居民健康质量下降造成的．即使是收入真的增加了，这样的增加不一定是两年前的彩票政策引起的，或许是旅游业？制造业？收入增加造成的．
２．        进行的调查只在首府城市进行，别的地区很可能不是这样的情况，仅因为首府的居民收入高他们才花费那么多的资金去买彩票的．而且，an average of $50 per person per year没有比较，到底是多是少，也许是全国最少的，那么可以说明其实居民对彩票并没有兴趣！
３．        我们是否可以采取其他的政策，有没有考虑到负面的影响？或者还有其他更好的措施？两个州的情况是否一样？
补遗：
１．那还不如说，彩票的推行也对L产生负面影响，只不过没告诉你而已  （信息不对称asymmetric／asymmetrical）


０２５.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
七月第二版：
论据１：Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel
论据２：During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent
结论：The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View
逻辑推理：两年前Ocean View建造了高尔夫球场和度假旅馆＞在两年之内，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％＞改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆
１．        论据１，２本身之间是否有关系呢？游客增加可能有别的原因．．．．．新的商业的开展可能纯经济上的原因，单纯的建一个球场是否能够足以影响税收的增加
２．        我们本地的情况是否和Ocean View一样呢？我们是否有更好的办法增加经济？我们是否适合建这样的环境（草是否适合生长）或者我们本来就不是一个旅游城市，建立一个球场的作用没那么明显，或者是我们已经有足够多的旅游设施和旅馆，再建是否多余．
３．我们要考虑到收益周期，两年的时间是否符合我们增加税收的需要，我们是否可以采取其他措施更好的结合我们的实际并更快的收益？例如：Last but not least, assuming that building a new golf course and hotel would improve the town's economy, it might not the best way. Is there other way to improve the economy and tax? Will the tourists know the fact that there is a new golf course and resort hotel in HP? What about the tourists who does not play golf? It is entirely possible that building a new shopping center and carrying out a nationwide ad campaign would bring more tax revenues and preferably promote the economy.（当然本段攻击的不是很好）
找了一个好句子：（小别的）
a careful scrutiny would reveals its illogical points as follows
还有一种攻击方式：
Thirdly, the arguer cites the fact that during the last two years Ocean view's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. But based on this mere evidence, we can not judge this increasing rate is a higher surprising speed or a sadly normal one, for he did not compare the recent economic growth with the time when the new golf course and hotel was not built. Maybe three or four years ago the economic growth in Ocean View is much more satisfied and the building of the new golf course and resort hotel cumbered with the economy growth. If so, simply copy what Ocean View did in Hopewell maybe not a wise idea.增加了30%是否是足够好的经济增长？

０３９The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。
要点：（四月第一版）
１．错误类比．两个学校的情况不一定一样．盲目的使用可能会造成其他不好的后果．我们两个学校的课程是否一样，是否我们的课程适合远程教育呢？引进这套系统是否会引起更多的投入加重我们的资金问题呢？
２．去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生并不一定都是本校的学生．所以报名人数的增加并不能和Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降产生必然联系．时序性因果错误．还有可能原来报名Omni的远程教育的人数很少，那么50%的增加并不是那么足够影响学校的开支．
３．我们学校的报名人数下降可能是由于我们的教学质量下降了，或者专业比较偏，就业形势比较差的学校．而房屋的维修费增加了可能是由于我们的房屋老化．作者不能忽略其他的因素．或许Omni的开支的减少是由于它是比较新的学校，校舍的修理不用太多的花费．那么增加报名人数的最好的办法应该是是提高教学质量，而不是采取新的教学方法．
分析：（七月第二版）
论据１：Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%
论据２：During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space(作者暗含假设most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections)
论据３：over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished
论据４：costs of maintaining buildings have risen
结论：we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni
分析：第一版的分析已经很全面了．
补遗：
１．就是说我们开设远程教育系统可能需要购置电脑,搭建网络,聘请维护人员,这些都是要花钱的,而我们的收入只来源于学生的学费和社会的赞助,以及校办企业的收入,由于学校的赤字,这些收入是否能够补齐我们的开销呢?我们的资金是否周转的过来呢?
２．生源问题．
３．计算机网络的普及状况
        the increasing enrollment of long-distance degree programs does not equal to the total increasing enrollment of students
        It is entirely possible that the long-distance programs enrollment increase  increased ，注意和题目里的时态对应，last year, however the whole enrollment number of students decreases
        whether the programs have resulted in other extra expenses, such as the money spent on new devises, teachers' training courses and so on
        It may be an good idea to promote advertisement campaign to inform people the advantages Humana has or try to invite famous politicians or Noble prize winners to give a speech at Humana

０６３When Stanley Park first opened, it was the largest, most heavily used park in town. It is still the largest park, but it is no longer heavily used. Video cameras mounted in the park's parking lots last month revealed the park's drop in popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day. In contrast, tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150 people on a typical weekday. An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley Park, provides ample seating. Thus, if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as is Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.

当Stanley公园第一次开放的时候，它是本市最大，使用频率最高的公园。现在它仍是最大的，但使用频率已经不再高了。上个月在公园停车场架设的摄像机发现公园的受欢迎度下降了：录像显示平均每天只有50辆车。与之相比，位于商业区中心地带的Carlton小公园在工作日每天游客超过150人。一个很明显的差异就是Carlton公园与Stanley公园不同，它提供充足的座椅。因此，如果Stanley公园想要和Carlton获得同等的受欢迎度的话，显然应该提供更多的长椅，从而把一些未加利用的开阔地转化成适于人们交往的空间。
分析：
论据１：Video cameras mounted in the park's parking lots last month revealed the park's drop in popularity
论据２：the recordings showed an average of only 50 cars per day
论据３：tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more than 150 people on a typical weekday
论据４：An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley Park, provides ample seating
结论：if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as is Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.
分析：
１．        论据２并不能得到论据１，并没有证据表明大部分来Stanley Park的都是坐车来的．也许许多人都改步行了．并且有车可能停在了附近别的停车场，或者摄象机并没有反映整个的停车场的情况．
２．        １５０人的数量和５０辆车无法比较，如果一辆车平均４人的话，那么Stanley公园可能还是受欢迎的．另外，这个差异好象并不能说明它提供充足的座椅就是受欢迎的原因，也许它的设施比较好，绿化比较好，或者地区比较好．
３．        如果Stanley公园想要和Carlton获得同等的受欢迎度的话，显然应该提供更多的长椅也许不一定适合，如果Stanley公园是一个很大的野生动物公园，那么就不适合设置长凳，或者说游乐设施很多，比较吵闹，设置长凳也不会有很多人坐．是否有别的更好的措施？
４．        新公园有什么特邀嘉宾、特别演出之类的．不一定S受欢迎度就下降了嘛。。。可能因为暂时修路什么的，人们过来不方便了啊．
５．        季节性变化，可能说这个公园以冬景著称，遮阴的少，那个公园以树荫多著称
摘抄：
        It is very likely that Stanley park restricts the hours and limits the number per day for the sake of constructing new entertainment centers, fitness clubs and other convenient facilities. In this case, the result will inevitably lead to the great decline in people’s visiting times.
        However maybe the used open area is the unique feature of Stanley park and local community, then whether the utility will make positive effect remains doubted. Perhaps Stanley has already possessed enough resting place rather than benches or seats, and providing more benches or seats is of no use, but a waste of economic and human resource.
        Perhaps,to attract more people,SP could plant more trees and flowers and improve natural sense,,or hold some subjective party,or promote the serving quality

pewcg8UID: 2143213

０７９The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.

"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."

Longhaul货运公司注意到其年度事故率（每驾驶一百英里所发生的事故数）过高。公司大幅提高了付给驾驶员的报酬，提高了其训练标准。公司还对每名驾驶员每周驾驶的时数提出了更严格的限定。在随后的一年里，该公司卡车所卷入的事故数是实行这些改变之前的一半。对于其他一些货运公司的调查发现，报酬最高的驾驶员是最不容易出车祸的驾驶员。因此，想要降低事故率的货运公司可以简单地通过提高驾驶员的报酬和限制他们驾驶的总时数来达到目的。
分析：
论据１：its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high
论据２：It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards． It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive．
论据３：The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented
论据４：the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident
结论：Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive
分析：
１．        论据１２和３之间关系值得怀疑．是否是这些措施导致了事故减少？也许公司的出车减少？或者路况变好？或者其他的条件变好，比如买了好车？
２．        报酬最高的驾驶员是最不容易出车祸的驾驶员，并不意味着提高报酬就能减少事故，很可能是因为这些司机本身技术好，经验足才被给了高薪，他们当然不容易出事故。如果一些司机驾驶技术有问题，光提高收入毫无作用
３．        一个公司的情况是否和其他公司相同？限制驾驶总时间可能对技术差的司机没用，或者他们本身就工作在比较危险的区域？要考虑不同公司的特殊情况．还要考虑不同的公司承担的业务的不同和总体车况，不是所有的事故都是相同的！

０９４The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a company that constructs new homes.

"A nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen. Homes in a nearby development built by our competitor, Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average. To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes. Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards, we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards."

一项全国性调查发现人们最想拥有的两项家庭设施就是具备冲浪浴缸的浴室和大厨房。我们的竞争对手Domus Construction在附近开发的新住宅安装了冲浪浴缸，这些住宅的销售速度和售价显著高于平均水平。为增加我们的销售和利润，我们应该在所有新住宅中设置冲浪浴缸和大型厨房作为标准配置。由于我们的新客户没有提出对小型庭院的任何投诉，我们也可以通过减小庭院的尺寸来增加盈利。
分析：
论据１：nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen
论据２：Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs
论据３：Domus Construction have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average
论据４：Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards
结论１：To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes
结论２：we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards
１．由于没有涉及到具体这两个公司坐落的位置，作者的论断过于草率．全国性的调查反映的是全国的总体趋势，但是对应这两个公司具体坐落的位置，情况可能会有所不同．可能DC坐落的位置人们对a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen非常感兴趣，或者说a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen
非常流行，但是BB公司坐落的地方情况可能正相反，那么就不能盲目的这么说了．
２．DC有have whirlpool tubs和他的房子销售速度和销售价格并不一定有直接的因果关系．可能其他的因素比如广告，公司的售后服务比较好，或者公司的房子有其他吸引人的创新设计，或者很环保等等都可能导致他的房子销售速度和销售价格比较好．
３．我们的buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards并不能意味着我们减少了庭院的面积就能得到收益，因为可能住户并不太满意但是由于房子已经买到，不太可能改变才不抱怨，如果减少了庭院的面积（作者没有提供以前的面积到底是大还是小），有可能会引起抱怨或者购买者减少．同时，recent buyers没有抱怨不意味我们的潜在的新买主也不会抱怨．


０９７The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。
分析：
论据１：A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television
论据２：After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled
结论：To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage
１．全国性的调查是否适合KICK的播放地区？男性？那么女性观众是否应该考虑呢？
２．在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍两者之间是否有必然联系，比如其他的原因，可能正逢重大赛事？可能该台来了著名的主持人或者其他的措施比如减少了广告．
３．KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目符合我们的特点吗？作者没有比较，也许我们的收视率增长的更多！

摘抄：
        The author asserts that more sports programs should be put into the broadcast schedule of KICK for the sake of gaining a larger audience share in their area and consequently increasing their company profits.
        Moreover, there is no causal relationship between audience sharing and increased profits, since there are many factors influencing the whole profits of a television station.
        Also, the survey involves only men, but it might be true that much more women than men are KICK's audience, while the KICK pays no attention to them. Furthermore, the survey is nationwide, which means it might be not fit for KICK's very area. Any of these scenarios(details), if true, will serve to undermine the conclusion drawn from it.
        Those who have taken part in the survey may be within a certain age range and sports related careers, and are therefore more interested in sports than ordinary people.
        The primary problem with this argument is its assumption that the nationwide survey about the sports programs applies equally to the local area. the assumption is unwarranted and a variety of possible reasons may contribute to the differences between these two different scopes.
        Consider, for example, besides adding more sports programs, WACK also takes action to increase the proportion of soap operas or news to cater to women or the old, which consequently/subsequently help to raise its share.
         Moreover, perhaps, WACK has already had its majority of schedule, for instance 80%, filled with sports programs, and hence, it is useless and not feasible to adopt such a strategy.

０９９.The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

通过使用一种新研制的种子，我们临近国家Abundia的农在去年生产了比以往多80％的大米。为增加我们国家农的收入，我们应该鼓励他们培育这种新的大米品种，而不是那些他们的传统谷类作物。这种大米的高产量也将会使我国通过出口大米促进贸易平衡。
分析：
论据１：Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year.
结论１：To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops.
结论２：Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it.
分析：本题比较有特点
１．两个国家的作物种类，气候条件，地理，耕作水平不同！
２．我们的人民是否喜欢吃？（销路问题）
３．高产的大米是否会被拿来出口？我们是否有固定或者潜在的购买国家呢？或者临国已经占据了市场？
４．他们是否还同时采用了新的技术或是新的制度，这些都有可能提高产量，使得不能把成绩都给新种子。
摘抄：
        It is possible that the yield of rice in Abundia is always very low, so even little increase will lead to the 80 percent more than previous year.
        Only by export rice will not lead to the improvement of a country’s balance of trade.
        As a matter of fact, in the modern world, the import and export of a country dose not only consist of crops such as rice. Machines, high-tech products, medical services and so on also contribute a large proportion to a country’s national trade.
        There are some unconventional means which can dramatically increase the product of food, which also not gained the worldwide configuration because of its unknown influence of human healthy. Actually, there are more and more genetic modified food, saying as a better way to meet the need of people’s food demanding, available in local market, which is a new invention and means it did not have long-term testing system．
        It is possible that the temperature, rain falls and other climatic factors are so different between the two countries that the new variety of rice may not be suitable to be cultivated in Paucia.
        It is possible that even after adopting the new rice, the rice yield per acre in Abundia is less than that in Paucia with traditional rice. If that is the case, there is no need for farmers in Paucia to cultivate the new rice at all
        It is entirely possible that new technology are applied, thus peasants can make more production with the same amount of efforts. Or, maybe important policy which benefits the agriculture is put into use, as a result the work of farmers have become more convenient and thus have higher efficiency.
        The author completely neglects the different weather patterns, terrains, irrigations and the like of these two countries. Perhaps, most of districts of A is plain which is suitable for planting new seeds, while in P, such kind of terrain is very scant(缺少的).
        It is probably that the traditional seeds are more suitable to meet the special conditions in P. Then the taste of citizens in P should also be taken into consideration, perhaps they prefer the traditional ones rather than the new ones
        In addition, there is no evidence to prove that the rice can surely be exported, since it is highly probable that the same kind of seed has already been used in every other country.
        Perhaps, the weather in Abundia is better than any previous year with plenty sunshine and rainfalls, so that rice grew well there. It is also possible that more land was developed to use for agriculture or farmers there brought in some automations or machinery which could highly improve the farming work

１０２The following appeared in a letter from the mayor of Tudor City.

"After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50 percent. In addition, as travel to Yorkville became easier, most respondents to a survey of the country's top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to transact business. To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is suitable for a regional flight hub."

在一家大航空公司选择了Yorkville作为他们的区域航线枢纽之后，该城市的生意数量几乎增加了一倍，地方税收增加了50％。而且，由于到Yorkville的交通更加便捷，一次对于全国高层经营者的调查的多数回应者把Yorkville作为他们进行商务谈判的理想场所。为保障Tudor City的有效交通并刺激我们的区域经济，我们应该建立一个类似Yorkville机场的，可以作为区域航线枢纽的新机场。
要点：（四月第一版）
１． 错误类比．两者情况不一定相同．
２． 调查的问题．不具随机性并且没有提供足够的数据．
３． 是否有更好的替代措施？
４． 是否是其他原因导致了生意和税收的增加？
分析（七月第二版）
论据１：After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50 percent
论据２：most respondents to a survey of the country's top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to transact business.
结论：To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is suitable for a regional flight hub.
分析：
１．时序性因果，论据一两个事件之间没有必然的联系！是否是因为市政府采取了新的措施？或者是正好是商业的旺季．
２．只针对商务高层的调查不具有普遍的适用性，而且他们进行商务谈判的理想场所和航空枢纽关系不大！
３．Tudor City情况怎样呢？是否是一个商业城市，我们的原有的航空线路是否饱和，我们条件是否允许？还有其他的措施吗？

１１９The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.

"Traffic problems here in Waymarsh are obviously reaching record levels. While just three months ago it would take me 15 minutes to get to work, it now takes closer to 25. Waymarsh should follow the example of our neighboring city Gearsville. Last year, Gearsville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work with coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Gearsville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and several friends who live in Gearsville tell me that their trip to work is quicker than it used to be. With the terrible traffic and high pollution in Waymarsh, we must implement a policy similar to Gearsville's."

Waymarsh的交通问题显然正在接近纪录。仅仅三个月前我上班路上需要15分钟，现在几乎需要25分钟。Waymarsh应该借鉴我们临近城市Gearsville的例子。去年，Gearsville实施了一项政策，奖励那些合伙搭车上下班的人以免费的汽油券。政策实施之后Gearsville的污染水平下降了，一些住在Gearsville的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前要快。鉴于Waymarsh严重的交通与污染问题，我们必须实施和Gearsville类似的政策。
要点：（四月第一版）
论断：我们必须采取和隔壁G城一样的政策。因为我们的污染和交通问题都非常严重。三个月前我上班花15分钟，现在差不多需要25分钟。G城实施政策用免费的油票鼓励人们共用车，政策实施后G城的污染一直在下降，而几个住在那儿的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前快了。 1.•不一定成立的前提，即我们的污染和交通问题很严重。首先论者没有提供有关我们的污染问题有哪些，情况怎样，我们无法知道他的说法是否正确。其次交于交通问题的恶化，仅凭他个人的经历不能说明整个城市的问题。因为三个月的时间还不足让整个城市的交通恶化到论者所描述的程度，也许是论者上班的道路上局部发生了一些变化，比如可能有施工等暂影响交通的因素。
2.•G城的措施能解决我们的问题。首先两个城市的必然存在的差异使得G城的经验不一定会适合我们，比如居民密度，车辆拥有量等。如果G城居民密度大，彼此之间距离近，而我们居民之间住得远，就使得共用车无法实行。其次，用免费油票剌激居民共用车上班，有可能增加居民在其他方面多用车。
3.•G城解决得很好。首先论者没有为我们排除其它因素带来G城的污染下降的可能，比如G城关闭了污染严重的工厂等，这使得我们无法确信是共用车制度使汽车污染下降。其次关于交通问题，论者用的几个朋友的表述也不足信，因为各别人的经历同样无法代表整个城市的变化。
结论：论者的推论考虑不周全，仅凭个人感觉就作出武断的推论。提出的建议也不值得采纳。


１２５.The following is a recommendation from the president of Appleby College.

"Whereas Appleby College holds class reunions every five years, Edelston College holds annual reunions for all classes, during which Edelston's alumni are treated to banquets, lectures, and student performances, enhancing their loyalty to the college and their willingness to donate money. Edelston College receives most of its alumni donations during or shortly after these reunions. Therefore, the best way for Appleby to increase its alumni donations is to offer similar reunion activities and to have each graduating class hold annual reunions."

Appleby学院每五年举行一次班级同学聚会，而Edelston学院的所有班级每年举行聚会，并且在聚会上Edelston的校友可以参加宴会、讲座和学生表演，这提高了他们对学校的感情以及他们给母校捐款的愿望。Edelston学院的大部分校友捐款是在聚会期间或之后很短时间内获得的。因此，Appleby增加校友捐款的最好途径就是组织类似的聚会活动，并且让每个毕业班级组织一年一度的聚会。
要点：
论断：提高A校校友捐献的最好办法就是提供和E校一样的校友聚会活动，并让每个毕业班每年都举行聚会。因为A校每五年举行一次班集聚会，而E校每年都有。在聚会上E校校友被宴请，讲座还有学生表演，这提高了他们对大学的忠实度，使得他们愿意捐钱。E校在这些聚会中或聚会后都会收到大多数校友的捐赠。 论者的结论完全从A与E的比较中得出，但是它的比较却忽略了很多问题。
1. A校校友的捐赠是否就比E少，论者没有提供具体两校收到的校友捐赠数额，我们无法肯定A校一定少于E校。虽然E校每年聚会后都会收到校友的捐赠，但是次数多不一定金额就会多。有可能A校校友捐赠的次数少，但每笔都是大数呀。 •A校校友是否还能捐出更多的钱来。论者没有提供有关两校学生毕业后的经济状况，有可能E校是商学院，出来的校友经商赚钱多，而A校培养的都是文化人，属清贫一族。
2. •是否举行聚会A校校友一定能参加。如果A校学生毕业后很分散，五年聚一次已经不容易了，那么每年一次就更不能保证。所以如果没人能来参加，举行也没有用。
3. 要校友捐钱不就为了让学校腰包鼓起来嘛，如果E校每年搞的聚会花销比校友捐的钱还多，这种为了拿捐钱的聚会还不如不搞。
4. 捐赠在聚会后得到并意味着捐赠是聚会的作用。 时序性因果错误。
结论：论者没有考虑到两校的差别，进行的比较很荒谬。而且为了让校友捐钱而搞聚会只能破坏校友对学校的忠实，从而可能影响学校的声誉。这样的建议要不得呀。
补遗：
１．或者校友来参加只是吃吃喝喝，每年一次 ，是啊，要捐的不来也捐．或者说校友来参加，只记得同学之间的美好时光，完全没有把学校和捐赠记在心里
２．聚会花的多 捐的少 那不血本无归
３．五年加起来的数目都没有E一年得多