Argument57 [infinity小组]第三十二次作业

mayaUID: 199038

TOPIC: ARGUMENT57 - The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
WORDS: 349          TIME: 30min          DATE: 2006-7-30

The newsletter's author concludes that Zorba, as a simple dietary supplement, will be highly effective to prevent recurrent ulcers. However, scrutiny about the reasons cited to support this conclusion would reveal there are several flaws in this argument.

In the first place, this newsletter's author cites a study to substantiate that Zorba can prevent ulcers. However, this study contains some dubious results. First, whether the Zorba is effective in preventing ulcers cannot be reasoned. This author assumes that ulcer patients who took Zorba developed new ulcers with 25 percent mean that it is effective. However, it is unfortunate that the cardinal number has not provided and it is possible that this amount of patients is so large that it cannot be shown that Zorba is effective. Second, the study just presents that 75 percent patients are recurred. Yet, what about their later recurrence rate? It is entirely possible that patients who take Zorba have a higher recurrence rate than those who did not take Zorba. Third, this newsletter has not provided more scientific information about this study. To the extent that this study has paid few amounts of patients, then the reliability of this study is unreasonable.

In the second place, the whole evidence has not mentioned about other effects with Zorba and whether it owns some side-effects which can worse influence patients’ health. Or perhaps, this pill just owns a temporary curing effect. However, all of the information about Zorba has not presented by the author.

In the third place, even if Zorba is effective in preventing ulcers, this author cannot confidently that the general public should admit this pill. It is possible that other medicine which can prevent ulcers has better curing effect than Zorba. If this is the case, then the author cannot recommend this pill to health experts.

All in all, a dubious study cited by the author cannot support the conclusion. Clearer information about the patients who are studied is needed. In addition, the author should consider other curing means which can also prevent ulcers. Otherwise, Zorba recommended by the author cannot be accepted.

wp123UID: 2187508

终于被你领悟了写作文的真谛了。