ARGUMENT53

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 446          TIME: 1:00:00          DATE: 2006-8-9

This argument is not cogent because it assumes that cited correlation implies causation, which is not necessarily the case. The survey is not persuasive. And there are several other elements may make infants shy. Additionally, no convincing proof is given to claim the shyness will continue.

First, the arguer fails to give complete proofs that those infants are shy, because he cannot make this judgment just through their expression on odor or tape. Children making unusual reflections does not equal to that they are shy. Maybe it is just a natural expression about stimulation. Further more, in the recent study, although more than half of these children identified themselves shy, it does not mean all the teenagers, who are included in such survey, think themselves shy. And the number of these samples is not big enough that it might lack of random. In a word, such survey cannot persuade readers to be convinced of the shyness of those children.  

Even if we concede those infants are really shy, the arguers cannot assumes that increasing of melatonin is the only reason of infants' shyness. The arguer did not show any authorized conclusion about the correlation between these two things. Then, as we all know, many other aspects may make persons shy, such as growing environment, characteristics, education and so on. For instance, if a child grows up in a family in which parents are strict and demure, the children might be shyer than others who grow up in a more relaxed environment. And for a child, being quiet and mild, he or she might be much shier, because of his or her DNA which influence characteristic. Thus being shy is not only a result of ascendant of melatonin.

Even if we concede the increasing of melatonin is the very cause of shy, there is little evidence to substantiate that the shyness will continue into later life. The arguer just makes the conclusion without compelling proof. What is more, many aspects will change those shy persons into confident ones. For example, if a shy child receives a long-term course which is organized aiming to develop his confidence, surely, his shyness will decrease. In the other hand, common senses tell us, children are not mature and they may changes a lot during their teenage. That is to say, years later their characteristic might be different. Thus the arguer should not make such an unpersuasive assumption.

To sum up, if the arguer wants make a logically acceptable argument, more evidence should be given to prove that the infants are shy and such shyness result from increasing of melatonin. Additionally, the arguers also have to prove that such condition will continue