Argument47 hugo010311--Hamming组 自己的第2篇

hugo010311UID: 2237388

ARGUMENT47  Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 458          TIME: 1:15:12          DATE: 2006-12-2
1．          火山爆发与地球变冷之间的联系缺少证据
2．          行星撞地球的可能性没有完全被排除
3．          其他原因也可能导致全球变冷
The author concludes that the significant cooling of earth was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support his conclusion, he cites a surviving Asian historical record of that time that a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption, which could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere, would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures greatly. However, this argument contains several logical problems which render it unconvincing.

First of all, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the cooling and the volcanic eruption. Although a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption was mentioned by some surviving Asian historical records of that time, no one could make sure that the loud boom must have been created by the volcanic eruption. Even assuming that it was the loud boom that was the sound of volcanic eruption, little evidence was provided that there some relationship between the eruption and the cooling of the whole earth-let along that this phenomenon was only mentioned in Asian records.

In addition, the author provides few evidence that the cooling of Earth was not indeed caused by the large meteorite colliding with Earth. The author mentions that a large meteorite collision would create such a sudden bright flash of light, which was mentioned by no extant historical records of the time. As a result, the author rules out the probability of the meteorite collision. However, it is also likely that a large meteorite collision would not create such a sudden bright flash of light that could not be felt at all. Moreover, perhaps the meteorite collision was not recorded by human being of that time, or perhaps the records concerning the collision have already been lost. Without ruling out these probabilities, the author's assumption that the cooling of Earth was not indeed caused by the large meteorite colliding with Earth is unwarranted.

Finally, the author overlooks other probability that might also cause the cooling of the Earth. It is true that few historical records surviving from that time, the author can not draw his conclusion firmly in the light of the limit surviving records. The author overlooks those lost records containing significant data and facts of that time. Hence, before draw his conclusion, the author ought to eliminate all the other causes may also contribute to the Earth's cooling.

To sum up, the author fails to convince us that the cooling was indeed probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To strengthen his conclusion, the author must provide clear and strike evidence that a volcanic eruption can contribute to the cooling. To better his conclusion, his also need to rule out other causes that may also lead to the cooling.   

[ 本帖最后由 hugo010311 于 2006-12-2 22:49 编辑 ]

graduate06UID: 2223299

时间有点长，写得不错。加加油！
你和sisong2003互改，尽力完成吧。第一周加进来时间有点紧，加油啊！！:)

sisong2003UID: 2154005

论证顺序最好按给出错误的顺序。论证结构还行，语言加强。
1．          火山爆发与地球变冷之间的联系缺少证据
2．          行星撞地球的可能性没有完全被排除
3．          其他原因也可能导致全球变冷
The author concludes that the significant cooling of earth was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support his conclusion, he cites a surviving Asian historical record of that time that a loud boom would be consistent with a volcanic eruption, which could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere, (and the dust cloud) would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures greatly. However, this argument contains several logical problems which render it unconvincing.

First of all, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the cooling and the volcanic eruption. Although a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption was mentioned by some surviving Asian historical records of that time, no one could make sure that the loud boom must have been created by the volcanic eruption. Even assuming that (it was) the loud boom（that）(去掉，强调句型？) was the sound of volcanic eruption, little evidence was provided that there （is）some(any) relationship between the eruption and the cooling of the whole earth-let along(let alone) (that去除) this phenomenon was only mentioned in Asian records. （个人感觉that太多了，可用分词）


In addition, the author provides few evidence that the cooling of Earth was not indeed caused by the large meteorite colliding with Earth. The author mentions that a large meteorite collision would create  （such 去掉） a sudden bright flash of light, which was mentioned by no extant historical records of the time. As a result, the author rules out the probability of the meteorite collision. However, it is also likely that a large meteorite collision would not create such a sudden bright flash of light that could not be felt at all. Moreover, perhaps the meteorite collision was not recorded by human being of that time, or perhaps the records concerning the collision have already （been去掉，非被动） lost. Without ruling out these probabilities, the author's assumption that the cooling of Earth was not indeed caused by the large meteorite colliding with Earth is unwarranted.

Finally, the author overlooks other probabilit(ies) that might also cause the cooling of the Earth. It is true that few historical records surviving(survived,没谓语) from that time, the author can not draw his conclusion firmly in the light of the limit(limited) surviving records. The author overlooks those lost records containing significant data and facts of that time. Hence, before draw his conclusion, the author ought to eliminate all the other causes (that)may also contribute to the Earth's cooling.

To sum up, the author fails to convince us that the cooling was indeed probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To strengthen his conclusion, the author must provide clear and strike(striking) evidence that a volcanic eruption can contribute to the cooling. To better his conclusion, his(he) also need to rule out other causes that may also lead to the cooling.   
论证顺序最好按给出错误的顺序。论证结构还行，语言加强。

hugo010311UID: 2237388

接受意见！:hug: