Argument45 （12月作文高强组——好好学习，天天作文）

一月一号UID: 2148376

破题：这个题的结论在于：全球变暖——海洋冰融化——deer数量减少
1.       deer的数量未必减少，因为来自local hunter的报告不可信，有可能是deer 迁居到新的地方，hunter找不到
2.       即使数量减少，且与全球变暖同时发生，也没有证据说当地气候也变暖了，所以也没证据说冰融化了
3.       即使数量减少，且冰融化了，减少主要原因也未必是由于他们找不到原来的路迁徙，可能是因为其它的原因，比如食物不够，或者是被人猎杀太多




TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 476          TIME: 1:00:57          DATE: 2006-12-4

In the argument above, the arguer asserts that the descent of the number of Arctic deer is the result of global warming, because global warming causes ice to melt and then deer are unable to find their ways to migrate. However, after a careful scrutiny, we will find how groundless this conclusion is.

This assertion is firstly based on the report that the deer populations in Canada's region are declining, which is not credible as it stands. We cannot conclude that the whole number of deer is really declining just by local hunters’ assertion. It is likely that deer changed their location recently and hunters were just hunting in former places and thus arbitrarily that the deer population are decreasing. Furthermore, we cannot know the proportion of decrease from the report. Thus it may be the time that deer decrease their time outside of their caves when the hunters report the declining. The local hunters would conclude that the number of deer is declining as a result. Therefore, we cannot believe that the deer population is truly declining just by the unrepresentative reports from local hunters.

Even if the deer population is really declining and it coincides with global warming, we can not deduce that the culprit is global warming. Though world weather trends are warmer, there is no any evidence that the weather in Canada's arctic region is becoming warmer than before. It is even likely that air atmosphere there is even declining recently. Even if the air atmosphere is higher than that before, there is no guarantee that ice in Canada would melt as we do not know how much degrees the atmosphere increase. Maybe the increase is so small and would not lead the ice to melt and thus deer can search for food by moving ice from island to island.

Lastly, even if the number of deer is declining and the ice used to cover the sea separating the islands is melting, the main reason of deer's declination may not be that deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. As the author told us in the editorial, the deer's habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed. It may be the distinction of the plant they feed on suddenly by some unknown reason and then large amount of deer died because of starvation. Besides, the declination may mainly be caused by the over hunt in this area and thus the biological balance was broken, along the suddenly decreasing deer populations. But in the editorial above, we cannot find any exclusion of these possibilities mentioned above.

In sum, this argument suffers from several critical evidences. If the arguer cannot provide more information about the declination of deer populations, the weather change in that area and exclude other reasons that may cause the inclination, his argument would be little avail.

觉得没有想象的那么难写，但想得确实比较久，所以写得很慢，居然两倍时间了....

小飞呀UID: 2135290

In the argument above, the arguer asserts that the descent of the number of Arctic deer is the result of global warming, because global warming causes ice to melt and then deer are unable to find their ways to migrate. However, after a careful scrutiny, we will find how groundless this conclusion is.

This assertion is firstly based on the report that the deer populations in Canada's region are declining, which is not credible as it stands. We cannot conclude that the whole number of deer is really declining just by local hunters’ assertion. It is likely that deer changed their location recently and hunters were just hunting in former places and thus arbitrarily that the deer population are decreasing. Furthermore, we cannot know the proportion of decrease from the report. Thus it may be the time that deer decrease their time outside of their caves when the hunters report the declining. The local hunters would conclude that the number of deer is declining as a result. Therefore, we cannot believe that the deer population is truly declining just by the unrepresentative reports from local hunters.

Even if the deer population is really declining and it coincides with global warming, we can not deduce that the culprit is global warming. Though world weather trends are warmer, there is no any evidence that the weather in Canada's arctic region is becoming warmer than before. It is even likely that air atmosphere there is even declining recently. Even if the air atmosphere is higher than that before, there is no guarantee that ice in Canada would melt as we do not know how much degrees the atmosphere increase. Maybe the increase is so small and would not lead the ice to melt and thus deer can search for food by moving ice from island to island.

Lastly, even if the number of deer is declining and the ice used to cover the sea separating the islands is melting, the main reason of deer's declination may not be that deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. As the author told us in the editorial, the deer's habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed. It may be the distinction （distinction差别,不同,对比,区分,辨别，用在这儿什么意思呢？）of the plant they feed on suddenly by some unknown reason(“通过不明确的原因他们所食用的植物”。。，然后就怎么样了？这句意思没表达完整) and then large amount of deer died because of starvation.Besides, the declination may mainly be caused by the over hunt in this area and thus the biological balance was broken, along the suddenly decreasing deer populations. But in the editorial above, we cannot find any exclusion of these possibilities mentioned above.

In sum, this argument suffers from several critical evidences.(这句话的意思不太理解呢，不知楼主在哪里看见的用法) If the arguer cannot provide more information about the declination of deer populations, the weather change in that area and exclude other reasons that may cause the inclination, his argument would be little avail（我觉得最后一段你表达的意思，可以分几句来写嘛，用一句就想概括感觉不太通，而且意思表达不完整）.
?憷碛啥颊叶疾淮砉??褪亲⒁獗泶锏淖既泛屯暾?/font>

[ 本帖最后由 小飞呀 于 2006-12-5 13:51 编辑 ]