argument45 求拍!十二月高强组第三周周一作业

waidswUID: 2256074

题目：ARGUMENT45-The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal

“Arctic deer live on islands in Canada’s arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea”

1. 仅仅依靠猎人的报告并不能说明鹿的数量下降
2. 全球变暖并不一定导致当地气温上升
3. 鹿群的减少可能有其他原因
The arguer concludes that the reason of the decline in arctic deer population is the global warming which leads the deer unable to follow their old migration pattern. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that the populations of such deer are declining through the reports from local hunters. In addition, the arguer provides that the trend of global warming have cause the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the conclusion seems appealing. Careful scrutiny of the evidence, however, reveals several flaws in reasoning.

To begin with, merely based on the reports of the hunters could not conclude that the number of deer actually decreased, On the one hand , the arguer fails to illustrate how many hunters have supported the decrease of the deer and whether these hunters are representative of the whole group. It is possibly that other hunters who didn’t submit the report experience the increment of the population of deer. On the other hand, the arguer fails to prove that the reports could reflect the real situation of arctic deer. Maybe most deer migrate to other locations which made the hunter hunt less deer than before, whereas their population hasn’t declined.  

Secondly, The global trend of warming do not necessarily cause the melt of the sea ice, Common sense informs me that the global warming do not influence everywhere on the earth, because the climate system is so complex that no universal measurements could explain all the phenomenon in the world .perhaps though the global temperature has increased, the local temperate in Canada’s arctic region do not increase. Even assuming that the temperature has increased, there is no proof to indicate such increase could lead to the melt of the sea ice and cause the decrease of the deer.

Finally, even if the sea ice melts owning to the global warming and the number of deer decreased, it is unjustified to conclude that such issue destroys the migration pattern of deer. Perhaps it is the unlimited hunting that results in the decrease of amount of deer. Perhaps it is the pollution that directly or indirectly killed deer. Absent accounting for any of these possibilities, the arguer cannot persuade me to accept his conclusion.

To sum up, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen conclusion, the arguer has to provide more specific statistical information to prove the amount of deer really decreased. I n addition, the arguer also has to show that the global warming actually cause the melt of sea ice. To better evaluate the conclusion, I also need to know about there are no other reasons for the decline of number.

sherry1225UID: 2192554

The arguer concludes that the reason of the decline in arctic deer population is the global warming which leads the deer unable to follow their old migration pattern. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that the populations of such deer are declining through the reports from local hunters. In addition, the arguer provides that the trend of global warming have cause(caused) the sea ice to melt(我觉得这个是主要原因）. At first glance, the conclusion seems appealing. Careful scrutiny of the evidence, however, reveals several flaws in reasoning.

To begin with, merely based on the reports of the hunters （the auguer)could not conclude that the number of deer actually decreased（这句好像缺个主语）, On the one hand , the arguer fails to illustrate how many hunters have supported the decrease of the deer and whether these hunters are representative of the whole group. It is possibly(possible) that other hunters who(who去掉把，不然这个句子不完整了） didn’t submit the report experience（experiences因为是hunters) the increment of the population(s) of deer. On the other hand, the arguer fails to prove that [wehther]the reports could reflect the real situation of arctic deer. Maybe most deer migrate to other locations which made the hunter hunt less deer than before, whereas their population(题目中是复数还是用复数把 populationd haven't)hasn’t declined.  

Secondly, The global trend of warming do(does) not necessarily cause the melt of the sea ice, Common sense informs me that the global warming do(does) not influence everywhere on the earth, because the climate system is so complex that no universal measurements could explain all the phenomenon(phenomena) in the world .perhaps though the global temperature has increased, the local temperate in Canada’s arctic region do(does) not increase. Even assuming that the temperature has increased, there is no proof to indicate such increase could lead to the melt of the sea ice and cause the decrease of the deer.

Finally, even if the sea ice melts owning to the global warming and the number of deer decreased, it is unjustified to conclude that such issue destroys the migration pattern of deer. Perhaps it is the unlimited hunting that results in the decrease of amount of deer. Perhaps it is the pollution that directly or indirectly killed deer. Absent accounting for any of these possibilities, the arguer cannot persuade me to accept his conclusion.

To sum up, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen conclusion(it), the arguer has to provide more specific statistical information to prove the amount of deer really decreased. I n addition, the arguer also has to show that the global warming actually cause the melt of sea ice. To better evaluate the conclusion, I also need to know about there are no other reasons for the decline of number.
LZ写的不错,注意一下语法问题