51. WORDS: 420 TIME: 33:00 DATE: 2006-12-5
The following appeared in a medical newsletter. "Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment." 医生长期以来怀疑严重肌肉扭伤后的二次感染妨碍了一些患者迅速康复。这一假说现在被一项对两组患者的研究的初步结果所证实。第一组患者全部由专攻运动医学的Dr. Newland治疗肌肉损伤,他们在疗程中经常服用抗生素。他们的康复期平均比通常预期的快40%。第二组患者由综合医师Dr. Alton治疗,他们被给予糖丸,而患者相信他们在服用抗生素。他们的平均康复时间没有明显缩短。因此,任何被确诊为肌肉损伤的患者应被建议服用抗生素作为辅助治疗。 漏洞:
论据:
因果关系错(concurrence =/=causal relationship)
服用抗生素 =/=> 康复的快,作者没有交待病人在治疗期间是否用了别的药。
Study不可信
没有给出参加实验的patients的人数是多少,而且未能说明他们能代表所有的严重肌肉扭伤的病人。
结论:
Hasty generalization ---差异概念
Sever muscle strain =/= muscle strain
WORDS: 420 TIME: 33:00 DATE: 2006-12-5
The conclusion of the argument that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain should take antibiotics as part of their treatment seems credible at first glance. However, the argument relies on several doubtful assumptions, and is therefore(颠倒顺序)unpersuasive as it stands. First, the argument assumes concurrence amounts to causal relationship. In addition, the reliability of the study is open to doubt. The author also hastily generates the conclusion. I will discuss each of the facets in turn.
To begin with, the author falsely assumes that taking the antibiotics is responsible for the patients of the first group to not only free from secondary infections but also recover quickly. Yet, we are not informed that the fact is indeed like this. Moreover, the author fails to point out that the first group of patients have not taken any other drag and treatment throughout the study. It is entirely possible that these patients were given massages during their treatment. Or perhaps, the patients have taken ginseng which is a kind of folk medicine as well. If多一个the it is the case, any reasoning on the basis of it is untenable.
Secondly, the reliability of the study is questionable. The author fails to show the number of the patients in the two groups;the smaller this figure, the less convincing the results. Further more, the author also provides no evidence that the patients were representative of the general patients who suffer from the severe muscle strain. In this case, the conclusion of the argument remains indefensible.
Finally, even assuming the study and its conclusion are reliable, the author also assumes that the severe muscle strain indicates muscle strain. Without the evidence to bolster the assumption, it is equally possible that the secondary infections only happen after the severe muscle strain. If this is the case, the patients who are diagnosed with ordinary muscle strain need not to take the antibiotics. Even perhaps, taking the antibiotics will serious damage(多s) their immunity system.
In sum, the argument, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. To bolster the argument the author would have to provide the evidence that the first group of patients have not taken any other treatment during the study except the antibiotics--that taking the antibiotics leads to the shorter treatment. To better evaluate the argument we would need to know the number of the patients in each group and the detailed information of their healthy situation. We would also need to know that the antibiotics for severe muscle strain can heal the ordinary muscle strain as well.
[ 本帖最后由 graduate06 于 2006-12-6 00:58 编辑 ] |