Argument65 hugo010311--Hamming组 我的第4篇

hugo010311UID: 2237388

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 510          TIME: 0:50:09          DATE: 2006-12-6
提纲：
1。差异范围草率推广：最新商店=\所有商店
2。调查样本不具代表性。
3。没有全面衡量措施对提高利润带来的利弊。

The author claims that to improve profits in all of his cheese stories, the best way is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. It can not be denied that the best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses, and a recent survey shows an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. However, this argument contains several logical problems which render it unconvincing.

To begin with, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. The trend that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheeses in the newest cheese store does not necessarily apply equally to all their cheese stores located throughout the United States. It is quite possible that other stores do not follow this special trend. For instance, it is entirely possible that people live near the newest store have a particular tendency to domestic cheddar from Wisconsin. For that matter, in the other stores the trends might be just the opposite. Without taking into account such possibilities, the author can not justifiable conclude that to improve profits in all of his cheese stories, the best way is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.

Second, the author provides no evidence that the world magazine’s   survey's respondents who are just its subscribers are representative of entire people who consume in their cheese stores. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people inclined to domestic cheeses were more willing to respond to the survey than any other people were. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the author cannot rely on it to draw any firm recommendation that the best way to improve their profit is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.

Finally, the author makes certain dubious assumption that the action that to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses weighs more advantage than its disadvantage. On one hand, it is entirely possible that the lack of stock of imported cheese make their stores lose profits on the imported cheese On the other hand, the author overlooks the possibility that the much cost in concentrating on domestic cheeses might make their cheese stores unprofitable. Under either scenario, adopting the author's proposal might harmful, rather than beneficial to improve profits in all of the cheese stories.

To sum up, the argument treats a lack of proof of the salability of domestic cheeses in the newest as constituting sufficient proof that it will also sell well in other stores, and the survey’s representbility is open to doubt. Also the author overlooks the disadvantage the action might bring. To strengthen the argument, the author should convince us that domestic cheese in stores other than the newest store also sell well, the respondents of the survey are representative to all of their consumers in US, and the action suggested by the author weighs more advantage than its disadvantage.

[ 本帖最后由 hugo010311 于 2006-12-7 12:19 编辑 ]

rt860113UID: 2256886

The author claimsthat to improve profits in all of his cheese stories, the best way is todiscontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrateprimarily on domestic cheeses. It can not be denied that the best-sellingcheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses, and a recent surveyshows an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.However, this argument contains several logical problems which render itunconvincing.

To begin with, the authorcommits a fallacy of hasty generalization. The trend that the five best-sellingcheeses were all domestic cheeses in the newest cheese store does notnecessarily apply equally to all their cheese stores located throughout theUnited States. It is quite possible that other stores do not follow thisspecial trend. For instance, it is entirely possible that people live near thenewest store have a particular tendency to domestic cheddar from Wisconsin. Forthat matter, in the other stores the trends might be just the opposite. Withouttaking into account such possibilities, the author can not justifiably conclude that to improve profits in all of hischeese stories, the best way is to discontinue stocking many of their varietiesof imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.(总体来说论述的还是很不错的，但有些地方也许可以再简化一下，比如最后一句话)

Second, the author provides no evidence that the world magazine’s   survey's respondents who arejust its subscribers are representative of entire people who consume in theircheese stores. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely（可以考虑换一些词，比如greatly） possible that people inclined to domestic cheeses weremore willing to respond to the survey than any other people were. In short,without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the authorcannot rely on it to draw any firm recommendation that the best way to improvetheir profits is to discontinue stocking many oftheir varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domesticcheeses.

Finally, the author makes certain dubious assumption that the action that to discontinue stocking many oftheir varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domesticcheeses weighs more advantage than its disadvantage. On one hand, it isentirely possible that the lack of stock of imported cheese make their storeslose profits on the imported cheese On the other hand, the author overlooks thepossibility that the much cost in concentrating on domestic cheeses might maketheir cheese stores unprofitable. Under either scenario, adopting the author'sproposal might be harmful, rather thanbeneficial to improve profits in all of the cheese stories.

To sum up, the argument treatsa lack of proof of the salability of domestic cheeses in the newest store as constituting sufficient proof that it willalso sell well in other stores, and the survey’s representativenessis open to doubt. Also the author overlooks the disadvantage the action mightbring. To strengthen the argument, the author should convince us that domesticcheese in stores other than the newest store also sell well, the respondents ofthe survey are representative to all of their consumers in US, and the actionsuggested by the author weighs more advantage than its disadvantage.
总体来说，模板运用的已经很不错了，再继续完善一下将会更好，继续努力吧！:):handshake

[ 本帖最后由 rt860113 于 2006-12-9 10:43 编辑 ]

hugo010311UID: 2237388

:handshake :D