argument226 十二月高强组第三周周日作业, 请拍!

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题目：ARGUMENT 226 - The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company.

"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."
字数：565          用时：0:48:50          日期：2006-12-9
1 是不是现在已经供不应求了
2 是不是有必要建一个新厂
3 是不是要用part-time basis
In this argument, the manager proposes to found a new plant on a part-time basis to meet the increasing need of consumers. I cannot concede with the manager's proposal in that the managers conclude his suggestion based on a scant evidence and fallacious reasoning.

First, the manger assumes that many people would like to purchase more automobile than the current productive capacity，whereas I find this assumption specious in several points. On the one hand, the people want to buy cars do not necessary mean they will actually pay the money. Having a new car, especially a high-level luxury car, is a great attraction to many people, but whether those people could afford a new car is uncertain.  It is entire possible that though intent to, people do not have the extra money to purchase a new car. Even if they could afford a new car, when will they buy a car is also uncertain since they may not be willing to discard or sell their old cars. On the other hand, the marketing projection is specious in that the data is too vague to support any conclusion. The produce ability 40 and the require 80 lack the specification to illustrate the condition between need and supply. As mentioned above, the 80 million people may want to buy a car in 5 years while the automobile company could provide 40 million cars per year. If so, there is no need for the company to build a new plant. In a word, With so many uncertainties the assumption is not well established.

Second, even if the contemporary productive capacity could not fulfill the needs, there is no evidence to illustrate that this trend will continue.  Form the marketing projection, I cannot obtain any continuous data about the need of our automobile to support that the current situation will continue that we might not face the situation that after constructing a new plant that the requirement of our automobile declines. In addition, there are many other feasible approach to increase the output. Such as adopting new technologies, expand the scale of the exiting factories and many others. Perhaps some other approach to expand the productivity is more economical and effective. Without taking into account any other ways, the arguer cannot convince me that open a new plant is the best approach.

Second, even if the opening of a new plant is necessary for the company. The arguer hastily conclude that the new plant should open on a part-time basis is unsubstantiated. There are myriad of other methods rather than the part-time one could deal with the stuff of the new plant. For example, employ some experienced worker at the beginning and train them to acquaint the new mechanism at the same time when the new plant is under construction. Despite that the manager points out the success of a airplane manufacturer using the part-time basis, it does not necessary mean that such method will also be effective in the automobile manufacturer, simply because there are many diversities between those two sorts of companies such as the procedure of manufacturing, the constitution of stuff, the skillful requirement and the like.

In sum, the proposal provided by the manager is flawed in several points. Making the proposal more convincing, the manger should provide more specific and clear marketing projections and a well established plan for the new plant.