Argument38 12月高强组第四周周三作业

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 731          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-12-13

提纲:
1, 不一定是感冒造成的缺席
2, 证据不可信
A. 没表明EM的人就不得感冒少
B. 得感冒少也未必跟I有关系
3, 建议没被证明可行: 副作用, 花费等等

In this argument, the author suggests schools and workplaces ask their people for daily use of Ichthaid, so as to prevent cold, therefore reducing absenteeism. To support this suggestion, he cites a situation in an area where finish consumption is very high and people seldom view the doctor. However, not only does the evidence and but also the author's reasoning suffers from wrong logical relations. A careful scrutiny will show us these critical flaws.

Fundamentally, the author assumes that absenteeism can be reduced by prevent cold, since this is most frequently given for absences. But he provides no evidence to testify whether this excuse is true or not. Although many people may say they have colds when absent, such excuses may be only lying, while the real situation is that they just over slept or even not will to go to school or work. If this is true, than even if colds can be prevented by the authors' suggestion, they will seek new excuses and still keep from schools and workplaces. So as a result, the absenteeism will not be reduced. The author needs to take further surveys to ensure that reported colds are truly the reasons of absenteeism.

Even assuming these surveys are taken and colds are exactly what caused the absenteeism, we are still not convinced about the effectiveness of Ichthaid for treating colds, in two following points.

Firstly, the evidence cited by the author states that in East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people seldom visit the doctor. Such an evidence is insufficient to prove that the high fish consumption results in low infection rate of colds. Are people who do not visit the doctor healthy? As we know, colds are mostly slight disease that many people can overcome them by their immune system. So strong people are tend to stay home and just wait for recovering. We can suspect that people in East Meria have no less colds than people in other areas, but just do not visit doctors because they do not have other severe diseases. Even if such suspicion is not true, it is still premature to attribute the strong ability to prevent colds to the fish consumption, without investigating how the fish plays a role in those people's bodies. Although the high consumption and strong ability take in the same place, they may not have correlation with each other. It is entirely possible that people in East Meria are strong and not likely to catch colds just due to good gene, or they may have good living style to avoid colds. Meanwhile, we cannot be sure the fish consumption is equal to eating them. If the large amount of fish is bought by some big companies used for making medicines in that area, or if people just buy those fish for keeping them as pets, the correlation between fish and colds can also be excluded.

Secondly, even granted it is the fish that help people in East Meria catch cold less, other elements but not Ichthaid may play the main role in preventing colds. Myriad kinds of elements can be used for colds treatment, many of which may be contained in fish, such as protein, Vitamin D and so forth. Perhaps only when these elements are eaten together, they can prevent colds, making the author's suggestion useless and groundless. More studies on function of Ichthaid for avoiding colds should be taken, if the author wants to make his suggestion more convincing.

Last but not the least, even when we grant that all the author's demonstration is reasonable, the suggestion of daily taking Ichthaid is still open to doubt. Commonsense tells us many chemical supplement may have side-effects. Although many people in East Meria may benefit from Ichthaid, it is possibly such benefits can only occur in that area, while people in other places with different body features may suffer from certain side-effects caused by Ichthaid. And the author also neglects concerning about the expenditure of using Ichthaid, leaving it not proved to be feasible if such a supplement is too expensive for all companies and schools to purchase.

To sum up, the suggestion is based on serial hasty casual relations and is not proved to be feasible. To make his argument sounder, the author needs to take further investigation, both on the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ichthaid for reducing absenteeism.

waidswUID: 2256074

In this argument, the author suggests schools and workplaces ask their people for daily use of Ichthaid, so as to prevent cold, therefore reducing absenteeism. To support this suggestion, he cites a situation in an area where finish consumption is very high and people seldom view the doctor(可以用view the doctor吗？). However, not only does the evidence and but also the author's reasoning suffers from wrong logical relations. A careful scrutiny will show us these critical flaws.

Fundamentally, the author assumes that absenteeism can be reduced by prevent cold, since this is most frequently given for absences. But he provides no evidence to testify whether this excuse is true or not. Although many people may say they have colds when absent, such excuses may be only lying, while the real situation is that they just over slept or even not will to go to school or work. If this is true, than even if colds can be prevented by the authors' suggestion, they will seek new excuses and still keep from schools and workplaces. So as a result, the absenteeism will not be reduced. The author needs to take further surveys to ensure that reported colds are truly the reasons of absenteeism.

Even assuming these surveys are taken (surveys are taken 有必要吗？使上下文更连贯？)and colds are exactly what caused the absenteeism, we are still not convinced about the effectiveness of Ichthaid for treating colds, in two following points.

Firstly, the evidence cited by the author states that in East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people seldom visit the doctor. Such an evidence is insufficient to prove that the high fish consumption results in low infection rate of colds. Are people who do not visit the doctor healthy? As we know, colds are mostly slight disease that many people can overcome them by their immune system. So strong people are tend to stay home and just wait for recovering. We can suspect that people in East Meria have no less colds than people in other areas, but just do not visit doctors because they do not have other severe diseases. Even if such suspicion is not true, it is still premature to attribute the strong ability to prevent colds to the fish consumption, without investigating how the fish plays a role in those people's bodies. Although the high consumption and strong ability take in the same place（是不是take place in the same time的意思？）, they may not have correlation with each other. It is entirely possible that people in East Meria are strong and not likely to catch colds just due to good gene, or they may have good living style to avoid colds. Meanwhile, we cannot be sure the fish consumption is equal to eating them. If the large amount of fish is bought by some big companies used for making medicines in that area, or if people just buy those fish for keeping them as pets,（这两点好有创意！） the correlation between fish and colds can also be excluded.

Secondly, even granted it is the fish that help people in East Meria catch cold less（有这么说的吗？是不是less likely to catch cold.）, other elements but not Ichthaid may play the main role in preventing colds. Myriad kinds of elements can be used for colds treatment, many of which may be contained in fish, such as protein, Vitamin D and so forth. Perhaps only when these elements are eaten together, they can prevent colds, making （这个making 很突兀阿，可以分开来写)the author's suggestion useless and groundless. (感觉这里论证的不怎么好，都可以作为治疗cold的物质，为什么还要一起吃才有效呢？可以从Ichthaid含不含有防感冒的物质来说，或者前面换一个方式说，不用说used for cold treatment)More studies on function of Ichthaid for avoiding colds should be taken, if the author wants to make his suggestion more convincing.

Last but not the least, even when we grant that all the author's demonstration is reasonable, the suggestion of daily taking Ichthaid is still open to doubt. Commonsense tells us many chemical supplements may have side-effects. Although many people in East Meria may benefit from Ichthaid（作者完全没有这么说， 为什么来个although呢）, it is possibly such benefits can only occur in that area, while people in other places with different body features may suffer from certain side-effects caused by Ichthaid. And the author also neglects concerning about the expenditure of using Ichthaid, leaving it not proved to be feasible if such a supplement is too expensive for all companies and schools to purchase.(我感觉最后一段没有什么必要，只要把前面论证清楚了就很好了。作者说明了是supplement, 肯定副作用不会很大，维生素片也是supplement，如果医生推荐吃维生素片也错了吗？作者只是建议，只需把前面的内容论证清楚了，作者的建议就根本立不住脚，如果前面的都对，就算贵一点，作者的建议也是没错的啊，建议必须是物美价廉吗？鉴于last前面已经论证得很详细，最后一段可能更反映了你严谨的学术态度)

To sum up, the suggestion is based on serial hasty casual relations and is not proved to be feasible. To make his argument sounder, the author needs to take further investigation, both on the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ichthaid for reducing absenteeism.

Lastangel你已经写化得了，三十分钟七百字，基本上每个点都说到了，而且还很详细，至少从我看来，是一篇好文章了，所作的评论完全是鸡蛋里挑骨头。