argument117 十二月高强组第五周周五作业, 请拍!

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题目：ARGUMENT 117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
字数：473          用时：0:30:00          日期：2006-12-22

The manager claims that the Valu-Mart should increase the stock of office supplies as well as home office machines to obtain more profit. The claim suffers the lack of evidence and also the unconvincing reasoning, therefore I cannot agree with the manager.

To begin with, the arguer cites a survey to present that many people are required to take more work home. Based on the survey, the arguer assumes that the sales of home office machines and office supplies will increase. However, it is not the case. In the first place, there is no specific information to assure the credibility of the survey. The number of participants and the rate of respondents are important to prove the result of survey is accurate. In addition, whether the participants are representative is not described in the survey. It is possible that those respondents all belongs to one social group that other groups would never get the same experience.  

In the second place, even assume that people are more likely to work at home do not necessarily mean that they have to purchase more home office machines and office supplies. It is very likely that they have already had adequate home office machines and do not need to buy new ones in a certain time period. Or maybe their works taken to home actually do not require any home office machines, and those works could easily be accomplished with the help of a personal computer.  Further, without any indication that the amount of works is increasing, it is premature to assume that the need of office supplies will increase.

Moreover, even if the need of home office machines and office supplies are increasing, it does not mean that the increase of stock could attract the consumers. Many other aspects could affect the sales, for example, the price, the service, and the reputation of the store. And common sense informs me that the increase of stock could hardly rise the sales since customers usually do not mind whether a store have enough storage. To the contrary, the unnecessary stock may be a waste of money. In a word, absent accounting to other facts that many affect the sales, the arguer hasty assumes that the increase of stock could attract customers and therefore enhance profit.

Finally, though the office-supply departments may be more profitable than before, the conclusion that this department will become the most profitable component is unsubstantiated. There are many other departments in the store; it is probably that even concerning the increasing profit, office-supply department could not exceed other more profitable departments. With out any data about the condition about other departments, I cannot concede that the office-supplies department is the most profitable.

In summary, The manager's claim are not convincing since the lack of evidence and analogical reasoning, therefore I cannot concede it unless the manager provides more information.