Argument147 Liquidshile--Hamming组 正式冲刺第7篇 冲刺总数第14篇 留链互拍感激不尽

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 358          TIME: 上午 12:36:06          DATE: 2007-1-22

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In this editorial, the author concludes that sales of Whirlwind video games will be able to increase dramatically in the next few months. However, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals various logical problems, which render it unconvincing. First, we are not informed the reason why sales decline. In addition, the argument make a false causal relationship. Thirdly, the assumption that young people who like playing game must buy these games is unsubstantiated. Besides, the author fails to consider the competition in the market. I will discuss each of these fallacies in turn.

To begin with, the author falsely assumes that the two-year decline in Whirlwind's sales is attributable to a problem that can be solved by releasing new games with an extensive advertising campaign. However, it is entirely possible that the Whirlwind's video games are attractive enough. Maybe the decline caused by this company's operation problems, like unreasonable price, false market strategies, poor management and agency's inability. The argument cannot convince us unless the author finds the real reason why the sales decline.

No evidence is provided to prove that games with lifelike graphics would attract players to buy them. There are many factors decided whether a game is interests or not. Does it have an attractive story? Is its operation easy to study?
Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative explanations, the author cannot convince us that a game with lifelike graphics is an interest game.

The author falsely assumes that people who most likely to play video games will buy this games. Common sense informs me that young people indeed like playing video games. However, it is equally possible that most people in the age of 10 to 25 are students. They do not have enough economic strength to buy such games. Especially, these games need up-to-date computer. It is difficult for them to replace their old computers only for a new game.

Moreover, granted that all problems can be neglected, we cannot ensure that sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. The author falsely assumes that players who buy such games would choose Whirlwind video games as the first choice. The argument provides no evidence this is the case. It is equally possible that Whirlwind's competitors have been released similar kind of games, or the sales of these kind video games have been declined totally.

Overall, this argument, while it seems logical at first glance, has several flaws as discussed above. To strength it the author need find the real reason of decline in Whirlwind's sales, the author also need to   

[ 本帖最后由 liquidshile 于 2007-1-23 14:33 编辑 ]