argument159 [大杀四方第四次作业]欢迎猛拍

lrihUID: 2264506

题目：ARGUMENT159 - The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.
字数：449         用时：2:09:41          日期：2007-1-27
提纲：
1）ways of cooling don’t determine expenditure on electricity. 用电花费可能由其他因素决定，比如地理因素，可能用空调的居民多数住在偏冷的地区，用fan的居民多数住hot地区；生活习惯，可能有households using air conditioner 空调不常开，而用fan的居民一直开；其他电器；省电意识，同时用fan and air conditioner的居民比单独用的居民更注意省电
2）并非每一个居民会买fan and air conditioner, 可能二者在功能上的替代居民不愿意都买；可能空调 fan 价格上涨反而花费更多；
3）调查 统计数据（样本规模，代表性）；方法程序
4）省电必要性 并非所有的居民都遇到电费上涨，可能遇到不变或跌；即使上涨也能afford不愿去省


The arguer recommends that the citizens of Claria should use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. To support his recommendation, he cites a recent study of household electric costs in Claria. However, I found several unbelievable flaws in the argument.

To begin with, the arguer relies on the assumption that it is what families use for cooling that determinates household electric costs in Claria. Yet the arguer does not provider enough evidence to substantiate the assumption. It is equally possible that the vast majority of households using fans dwell in the much hotter area while climate of the area that households using air conditioners live in is cooler. Perhaps families who cool their houses with fans are used to keep fans working from day to night, compared with families using air conditioners often keeping them off. Families using both air conditioners and fans may pay more attention to saving electric costs than those that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Besides, using other electric equipment for other purposes also influences expenditure on electricity in household, such as using television for entertainment.

Even if what families use for cooling is the only fact of influencing household electric costs, the arguer further assumes that the citizens of Claria are willing to purchase fans and air conditioners for cooling in order to save money on electricity. Given that fans are the perfect substitution for air conditioners on the purpose of cooling, query whether households who have one necessarily purchase the other. Moreover, it is utterly possible that the expenditure on buying fans or air conditioners exceeds decrease in electric costs after using both air conditioners and fans. Without ruling out these possibilities, common senses tell us the arguer's recommendation may be a poor advice in economics.

As for the study of household electric costs in Claria which arguer's recommendation relies on, it is unsubstantiated because the arguer doesn't provide enough information that how many households are surveyed, representatives of statistics data and how the statistics data is deal with.

In addition, the arguer assumes that every citizen of Claria is in urgent need of saving money on electricity and should follow the study's recommendation. Perhaps the citizens who are experiencing unchanging even declining costs of electricity have no interests in saving money on electricity, let alone using both air conditioners and fans.

In conclusion, the forgoing flaws make the arguer' recommendation a poor advice. To support his recommendation, the arguer must provide enough information about the facts of influencing household electric costs, willing to purchase air conditioners and fans, the authority of study of household electric costs and urgent needs of saving money on electricity.

[ 本帖最后由 lrih 于 2007-1-27 23:58 编辑 ]