agrument48 请大家看看~~

kitty_yyUID: 2292666

TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 510          TIME: 0:41:06          DATE: 2007-1-30

The author of the article in the newspaper conludes that the decline of the economy is the reason of the less physical fitness of the citizens, and the latter will improve when the economy does. To support this conclusion, the author contends that it is not the computer using which reflected on the ownership of the computers that causes the decline of the fitness. After careful scrutiny of the article, I find the conclusion is not credible.

First of all, the author falsely equal the ownership of the computer to the time spent in front of the computer. It is entirely possible that most people in the region where levels of computer ownership is highest needs recent information as their jobs demand. It is the computer that provide the convience to their work and lives when getting and sending some informations. They need not stay in front of the computers for a long time, while the people in other regions play games and see films on the computers who sit staring the screen several hours a day without rest. We are not informed that the ownership can exactly reflect the use of the computer, let alone the fitness of the people. The author does not provide adequate evidence to prove that the time of using computers has relation to the healty of the people, as a result, it is curtly to conclude that it is not the computers that make people less fit.

Moreover, the author does not provide enough evidence that the low expenditures on fitness-related products and services is caused by the decline in the economy. It is alse entirely possible that it is the low quality of the productions that prevent people from buying, or may be more people focus on other things which they think is more interesting and important than keeping fitness, such as study and work. Even if the author can prove that the low expenditure is really caused by the economy, there is not enough evidence that low expenditure is equal to less exercise and less fitness. Without the fitness-related products, people still can do some jogging and playing some games to keep fitness.

Even if the low expenditure is the reason of the less fitness and is really caused by the decline of the economy, it is necessary that after the economy improved, the expenditure will not improve as well as the fitness of people. There is no information which can help us to predict what the people will do when the economy improves. Whether they will buy more food to make comfortable lives or pay more attention to their health, it all depends.

There are some other flaws in the article. We can not know how many citizens was adequate physical fitness twenty yeas before by the information of Corpora. We also can not tell whether the fitness of all citizens has improved or declined. So the whole discuss is on a foundation which needs to be discussed before getting to the point.

In sum, the conclusion in the article is not credible unless the author give more information to convince the reader the real condition of the citizens and the real reason.