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chongxinlai
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发表于 2007-2-6 10:08:12 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 470       TIME: 2:00:00       DATE: 2007-02-06
1调查结果有问题
2承认调查正确，但人们不一定买
3没考虑外因：竞争对手，市场情况。没考虑内因：自己公司经营管理不善。
The argument contains several aspects that are questionable. First, the survey of video-game players unreasonable for not providing enough information. Second, the arguer confused the correlative relationship between inclination of responders of survey and their actual ability purchasing power. Third, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization , giving no considering other important factors .I will discuss each of these facets in turn .

First of all, the reliability of the survey are open  to question. In evaluating the evidence of the survey ,one must consider how the survey was conducted. If the questions were leading or if the survey relied on self reports, the results might be unreliable-- people might just respond with the expected answer. Another aspect ought to considered how board the survey was .If the survey was limited to a few players fascinate vide-game, the generalization drawn might not apply to most people. Moreover, there being many kinds of video-games such as RPG,ACG,FPS and so on, most responders might would like a type of game Whirlwind can't produce or be good at. Therefore, the result unnecessarily  facilitate increase of  sales of Whirlwind video games .

In addition, even if the result that most of video--game are interested in Whirlwind's production, this is not to say that they will spend much money on buying such video-games. It is highly possible that  the majority of video players are children or youth without enough money and their parents prefer to buying certain musical instruments or textbooks for their excellent education rather than to satisfy them .It also might be the case that the majority are not in possession of the most up-to-date computers for their too high price  .Without such high-level computers, those new video-games can't be run .Then , most of players will have no interests in Whirlwind's video-games ,unless they save enough money to advanced computers.

Finally, the arguer's conclusion that the sales' of Whirlwind video-games possibily rise in the next few months is too hasty with no regard for other factors having great influence upon the sales of Whirldwind. Perhaps, other competitors have sold similar video-games before Whirldwind's introduction .Yet , such games have not been popular among video-players. Thus, Whirldwind's new games will not be sold well .Though Whirldwind made an extensive advertising campaign for its products, the arguer overlooked other companies' behaviors more attracting their young customers. Compared with those competitors' situation, Whirldwind's advertising just engaged in a futile effort. Except for certain factors, the argument fails to mention Whirldwind's inner circumstances  ,including disordered management, low efficiency of product and so on. Such factors may be more crucial
In sum. in order to make the conclusion more convincing and reasonable, the arguer should provide more detailed information about survey .Besides. other  important factors having great effect on sales of Whirldwind's video-games should be considered seriously.

[ 本帖最后由 chongxinlai 于 2007-3-2 20:27 编辑 ]