Argument 147 我的第一篇arg

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appearedin an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind videogames have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-gameplayers suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The surveyasked video-game players what features they thought were most important in avideo game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelikegraphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introducedseveral such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows,then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increasedramatically in the next few months."

1. 开头
2. survey调查的题目和增大销量没有关系
3. 10-25岁的人不等同于video-game player，说明了survey的调查对象和销售人群不一致，并且，10-25岁的人很有可能没钱去affordup-to-date computers
4. 降价的原因可能还有其它
5. 结尾



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The arguer claims that according to thesurvey of video-game player about the most important features, the sales ofWhirlwind video games are likely to increase in the next few months because thegames have the most important features and also an extensive advertising campaign.At a first glance, it seems that the arguer is right. After all, once the gameshave the most important features, they are likely to attract more attention ofthe video players and thus the sales are probably to increase. But the argueris not logically right about his conclusion.

First, the survey has nothing to do withthe sales. There is no evidence provided that the survey can answer thequestions whether the video-game players are going to buy Whirlwind videogames. The survey asks video-game players the questions that what features theythink are most important in a video game. The features most important to avideo game are not directly lead the players to buy, although the sales and thefeatures are related. And, even the players are likely to buy video games whichprovide lifelike graphics, the most important features according to the survey,they may not buy the games produced by Whirlwind but other companies. Maybethere are other companies who provide video-game with better lifelike graphicsand players are more willing to be those companies' customers.

Another fallacy is that campaign isdirected to people 10 to 25 years old, not directly to the video-game players,who answered the survey. People 10 to 25 years old may not think lifelikegraphics is the most important features, and they may prefer others such as thestory line of the video game. Thus even Whirlwind introduced several games withlifelike graphics, people 10 to 25 years old may not buy it. And as the arguersays, lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers. Since thosegames Whirlwind introduced have such feather, they, the games, require the mostup-to-date computers. But its potential customer, the campaign directed, arepeople aged from 10 to 25, usually are students who are not financially independent.Can they afford to have up-to-date computers to play the game? Thus anotheruncertainty in the arguer's claim emerges.

Last but not least, the arguer fails toprove that the features and campaign are the only factors to increase sales, orare the only factors why the sales declined over the past two years. But thereare other possibilities. For example, the market of video games is shrinkingand not so many people want to buy them. Or the price the Whirlwind set for itsgames are so high that no player can afford.

Because of these fallacies, the arguerfails to justify that the sales of the company will increase dramatically. Ifthey hold another survey, asking questions directly about Whirlwind, analyze thereasons why Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years and dosome salvation according to the results, the sales may finally go up.

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说理由更具体了一些：


The arguer claims that according to thesurvey of video-game player about the most important features of a video game, the sales of Whirlwind video gamesare likely to increase in the next few months because the games have the mostimportant features and also an extensive advertising campaign. At first glance, it seems that the arguer is right.After all, once the games possess the mostimportant features, they are likely to attract more attention of the videoplayers and thus the sales are probably to increase. However,this argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First, the survey has nothing to do withthe sales. There is no evidence provided that the survey can answer thequestions whether the players are going to buy Whirlwind video games. Thesurvey asks video-game players the questions that what features they think aremost important in a video game. The features most important to a video game do not directly lead the players to buy, although thesales and the features are related. It is possible thatthe games Whirlwind newly produced has very bad story-line and music, thatoverweight their advantage on the graphics. When the player sees a game likethat, he lost his interest immediately and decides not to buy it, even thoughit has wonderful graphics, the most important features according to the survey.And, even if the players are likely to buy video games which providelifelike graphics, they may not buy the gamesproduced by Whirlwind but other companies. Maybe there havealready been other companies who provide video-game with better lifelikegraphics and better marketing, and players aremore willing to be those companies' customers.

The argument is weakenedby the fact that it does not take into account the differences between therespondents of the survey, video-game player, and people 10 to 25, whom thegames are target to. Some video-game players are aged from 10 to 25, but notall of them. It is possible that the opinion of overall video-game players isnot the idea of people aged 10 to 25. People 10 to 25years old may prefer other factors such as thestory line or the music other than graphics.Thus even Whirlwind introduced several games with lifelike graphics, people 10to 25 years old may not buy it. In addition, asthe arguer says, lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers. Sincethose games Whirlwind introduced have such feature, thegames surely require the most up-to-date computers. But the customers that the campaign directed to (peopleaged from 10 to 25) are usually students who arenot financially independent.Can they afford to have up-to-date computers to play the game? Probably not. [Thus another uncertainty in thearguer's claim emerges.这句话可以删吧，或者，怎么改呢？]

Last but not least, the arguer fails toprove that the features and campaign are the only factors to increase sales, neither are the only factors why the sales declinedover the past two years. But there are other possibilities. For example, themarket of video games is shrinking and not so many people want to buy them. Orthe price the Whirlwind set for its games are so high that no player canafford. All those can lead to a decreased sale. So eventhough the company produces better games, still less people buy them.

Because of these fallacies, the arguerfails to demonstrate that the sales of thecompany will increase dramatically. If they hold another survey, askingquestions directly about Whirlwind, analyze the reasons why Whirlwind videogames have declined over the past two years and do some salvation according tothe results, the sales may finally go up.