Argument15【四海一家】第四次作业 请多多指教。请留链互拍。

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 497          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007-2-11

The newsletter presents a relatively sound case for arguing that Old Dairy (OD) stockholders should sell their shares and other investors not purchase stock in this company. It also provides a variety of evidence to support this claim. It seems somehow plausible at first glance, however, further reflection and more consideration will reveal it that it suffers from critical logic flaws and therefore is unconvincing.

To begin with, the speaker in this newsletter cites a recent survey showing the latest desire of consumers, on which he relies to make a further sub-conclusion that because of this supposed trend, the sales of OD products would be adversely affected. However, this newsletter provides no compelling such information to better substantiate this idea. Aside from this survey's statistical reliance and sample randomness, perhaps those respondents inclined to highly value this trend mentioned were more willing to answer such surveys than others were. Nor can what they said be a strong guarantee of what they would do, since a multitude of factors like peer pressure, advises from friends and so on would greatly influence their decision- making process. These scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the credibility of this survey before the speaker provides more detailed information. Moreover, the speaker unfairly assumes that the fact that a lot of low- fat products stored in the many food stores could be explained by the trend noted above. However, this was not necessarily the case. He or she may overlook one or more other factors could be responsible for this fact. Specifically, perhaps this fact would be used to prove that though this trend existed, however, the actually sales in many food stores did not decline and more likely increase to such an extent that they raise their reserves. This assumption, if true, would further weaken the final conclusion.

In addition, the speaker unfairly concludes that the sales of OD will diminish greatly and their profits would decrease without doubt. However, this newsletter offers nothing that this would be the case. Perhaps though this trend was reflected by responds, they actually have no other choices but to continue to purchase such food due to their own failure in self- control. Besides, lacking more accurate information and a cost- benefit analysis, it is entirely possible that though the sales of OD's high- fat- and - cholesterol food would turn down, OD may have other products to offset this adverse impact on its profitability since it is one industrial company, which may produce various products, including some household appliances or other products unrelated to food products.

In the final analysis, even if these foregoing assumption are founded, the speaker makes a sweeping suggestion of OD's stock decision. Since common sense tells us that in spite of other contributing factors, individuals buying its stocks were just out of their firm expectation that OD would make a good profit over the long term, the speaker's final recommendation remains dubious at best.

In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To better assess its idea, further investigation and more consideration should be taken before the final conclusion and ultimate action.

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