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TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 506          TIME: 0:40:57          DATE: 2007-2-16

In the argument presented above, the author claims that the cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support the conclusion, the author cites that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have lead to the significant decrease of temperature. The author also reasons that no extant historical records of the time mention a flash that might caused by a large meteorite collision, and that some surviving Asion historical records of the time mention a loud boom. However, the argument suffers form several logical fallacies as it stand.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the dimming of the sun has caused the extremely cold temperatures. However, the author fails to provide enough evidence to substantiate the assumption. It could be possible that the extremely cold temperatures happened before the dimming of the sun. Or there was so long a time period between the dimming of the sun and the extremely cold temperatures that the dimming of the sun has no causal relationship with the extremely cold temperatures. If either is the case, then the author can not rely on the assumption to come to the conclusion that the cooling was cause by a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere.

Secondly, by claiming that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have caused the cooling, the author assumes that nothing could cause the cooling except the mentioned two cases. However, the author does not provide convincing evidence to prove the assumption. There could be other alternatives that the author fails to take into consideration. Without accounting for other possibilities, I can not consider the argument as well-reasoned.

Thirdly, as claiming that a large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, the author assumes that all meteorite collisions are companied with a bright flash of light, which the author fails to demonstrate. Besides, no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash does not necessarily means there wasn't such a flash. The historical records mentioning the flash might be ruined for whatever reason, or they just haven't been unearthed yet. On the other hand, the surviving Asian historical records of the time, which the author used to support the conclusion that the cooling was likely caused by a volcanic eruption, was not well-supported to demonstrate the relationship between the loud boon and the volcanic eruption as well. It is very likely that the loud boom was caused by something else, or the records are not true. Without better information about the loud boon and a volcanic eruption, the argument remains unpersuaded.

To sum up, the author fails to render the argument as well-reasoned as it stands. To support the conclusion, the author needs to provide convincing evidence about the relationship between the large dust and cooling. Also needed is the information on what else could cause the large dust. To better assess the argument, I would need more information on the loud boom.