ARGUMENT59 飞跃小组disyoo今天的额外作业

disyooUID: 2223964

TOPIC: ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS: 385          TIME: 0:30:14          DATE: 2007-2-26

In this memo, the author concludes that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. To support the conclusion, the author presents a medical record shows that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 6 years. The author also points out that the 6 years which have the worse flu have heavy sun spot activity, and Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. However, the argument is based on a series of unsubstantiated assumption.

First, the author forgets to mention that how the sunspot actives in the other years except these 6 years during the 300 years. Perhaps, in the other years, the sunspot is also heavy activity, but no worldwide flu at all. Or perhaps, in some of years that the flu broke out in a middle level and million people were dead, but the sunspot has no activity at all. So lacking the information of that both the climate in other years and the flu in the world, the evidence is not believable.

Second, the heavy sunspot activity does little indicate that people are easy to get flu. First, it is possible that people who have flu are coursed by the poor condition of life, for example, hungry, cold, or even sleepless. Further more, if the author does not have medical information to support that sunspot can lead to flu, the assumption is also unbelievable. So, the worldwide flu may be coursed by other reasons.

Third, it is possible that the heavy sunspot activity is the reason that the flu was not broke into much worse. It is known to all that one use of sun light is killing grim and virus, in that case, if there is no sunspot activity in the 6 years which flu worldwide epidemics, there are much more people who will get flu. So it is a less believable assumption that the sunspot leads to the worldwide flu.

In sum, relies on unbelievable assumption in the argument, the conclusion is not creditable as it stands. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should show more information of the flu about the other years of the 300 years. The author should also present more evidence that the flu is coursed by the heavy sunspot activity.

着急了最后的结论错误没有指出……