ARGUMENT47 [076G飞跃小组]zengyouwen第4次作业 求拍留链必复

zengyouwenUID: 2284999

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 345          TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2007-2-27

The arguer advocates that a mid-sixth century cooling of the Earth is probably the reason that a volcanic eruption happened.To illustrate this the arguer cites the records mentioned a dimming of the sun and extremely cold and a loud boom in the records of the Asian's historical records.This argument fails as it suffers from several fallacies.

The first problem that undermines the argument is the overlooking of other possible alternatives to interpret this.If there exist other possible reason for this kind of phenomenon, may be an earthquake which can also cause a loud boom and a large dust. Or there is ancient civilization that we never think about which can make bombs like today ,thus caused the disaster when they are at war using atomic bombs. Thus makes the assumption cannot lend strong support to the interpretation of this article.

Second, the author commits a fallacy of imcomplete analysis for the phenomenon of dimming of sun and extremely cold. Maybe it is because that the  large dust was caused by a gust and the cold just by the environment changed normally, but just happened togther, how come that it must be the volcanic eruption and the meterite collision?

Third, another defect of this argument is the hasty generalization.Common sense tells us that the volcanic eruption may emit a high temperature matter,and that the temperature might make the whole world be  hot for long instead of cool.In addition, the collision of the meteorite with earth might also cause a loud boom and a flash which can also cause the earth to be cool for long after it is happened. Hence ,the result should not be the volcanic eruption, more evidence should be found instead of the merely records in the historical records.


In conclusion, this argument does not reasoned well for the fallacies mentioned above, to present it well and sound we should know more about the evidence that can support the phenomenon that whether this  loud boom is caused by the volcanic eruption  or a collision of the large meteorite.Thus the argument may be better.