Argument 47(飞跃小组） syjoli 第二次作业第二篇 拍吧

syjoliUID: 2296328

47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler.
Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts
found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the
cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。




In arguer claims that cooling in the mid-six century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.To support this conclusion,the arguer points out that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth as result of lower global temperatures significantly.But there is no exact historial record of the time mention such a flash  which was caused by a large meteorite colliding.However, there are some dubious assumptions from the argument.

First of all, the arguer cites the fact that some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mentions a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures will inevitablely lead to the conclusion that Earth suddenly became significantly cooler.Or It is entirely possible that  only these few places did temperatures become lower,Maybe ,many other places still warm as usual or maybe higher than before.Without indicating convincing evidence that Earth became cooler in mid six century.Therefore,the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption was unwarranted.

In the second place,the arguer simply state that  Earth became cooler was caused by a volcanic eruption just is depend on the assumption that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth.While the aruger fails to provide assurance on this assumption.Perhaps,there are some many other factors include, For instance,it was created by sun itself,might result in the decrese of temperatures on the Earth.Without ruling out these like possibilites,Thus ,the arguer can not undoubtly assure that the cooling  on the Earth was caused by a volcanic eruption.

The last but not the least, the mere fact that there is no extant historical records which mentions such a bright flash of light was caused by a large meteorite collision. However,we can not justifibably conclude that there is no large meteorite collision during the mid six century.Maybe,the records was lost from the collision,Pahaps,the people did not survive that time,Or occurred during the day time was not easy observed. Lack of strong evidence to show that no meteorite collision happened in mid six century.Therefore,the conclusion was mentioned that cooling was caused by a volcanic eruption is suspected.

In sum, the author's conclusion that the cooling in mid-sixth century was caused by a volcanic eruption is unjustifiable. To strengthen this argument, the author must show that such a cooling did taken place in mid-sixth century, that the cooling was attributed to either a huge meteorite collision or a large volcanic eruption, and that no such a large collision happened in mid-sixth century.


[ 本帖最后由 syjoli 于 2007-2-27 19:13 编辑 ]

cagerUID: 2267706

要点都找到了,论证也很清楚,牛~
fight fight~!!:cool: