argument45 -anan时间啊

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Argument45  第15篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：36分55秒     341 words
从2007年3月7日11时1分到2007年3月7日11时36分
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The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'
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The evidence the speaker provide is well-presented, but of great doubt. So the conclusion cannot be accepted as it stands.

To begin with, the reports from local hunters can be regarded as a convincing evidence to support the decline in arctic deer populations. How do the hunters get the assertion that the deer populations are declining? What have they observed? What methods do they use to sum up the populations? The editorial provides no evidence to answer the questions above. So it is greatly possible that the place that the hunters can go to is very limited, and cannot stand for the all place of Canada's arctic region. For that matter, perhaps the deer populations in other place are great more than the place the hunters observe in. Lacking convincing evidence, the basis of the conclusion can not be supported, further the conclusion.

Besides, even the populations are really declining, we should consider whether there are other factors that also cause the result. Is there an epidemic disease in the deer? Or are the hunters increasing who over-kill the deer? Or do the tourists or the local residents destroy the environments that the deer depend on for living? The speaker cannot answer any of the questions, then how can we agree with his conclusion?

Moreover, even assuming the questions mentioned can be ruled out, another two assumptions should be cited. First, we should assume that the recent global warming trends really cause the sea ice to melt in the Canada's arctic region. Second, we should also assume that deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea will no doubt cause some serious results such as make them not inhabit or affect them to generate the young deer and so on which even cause the decline. Without such assumption, I should also contain my skeptical opinion to the conclusion.

In sum, at the first glance, this argument is more or less rational, but deep scrutiny indicates that it is incredible with its evidence not enough and convincing.