Argument143 [Victors小组]第十二次作业

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134The following was taken from a guide for aspiring积极追求的,有抱负的writers.

"New writers usually cannot convince large, prestigious a. 享有声望的,声望很高的publishers that their work is marketable, so they must first publish with smaller, less well-known presses to establish a sales record. But the editors of Mystery Writers Magazine have good news for aspiring writers: the number of mystery novels published in the last two years has grown significantly, and more people read mysteries than any other type of novel. In addition, almost half of the mystery novels published last year were written by first-time novel writers. Since there is apparently an expanding market for mystery novels, all publishers will want to increase the number of mystery novels they publish. Therefore, new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company."

提纲：
1市场到底有没有扩张还不确定。
2市场扩张可能只是一时的，而不是长期的趋势。
3作者略了不同作家有不同得特长。In this statement, the arguer reasons that the market for mystery novels is expanding, rely on which he or she recommends that new writers should write mystery novels to increase their chances for first-time publication with a larger, prestigious company.. In my opinion, the arguer commits a series of logical flaws.

In the first place, the fact that more mystery novels were published in the last two years and more people read mysteries than any other type of novel is little indication that the market for mystery novels is expanding. On the one hand, the arguer fails to provide the information about the demand of other types of novels. It is possible that the demand of other types of novels are little, in that case, although the demand for mystery novels are larger than other types of novel, the demand may be not large enough. On the other hand, the reason why more mystery novels are published does not necessarily is that they bring along handsome profit for publishers. It is entirely possible that it is the too low demand of other types of novels that force publishers to transfer to the publication of mystery novels. Due to the failure of the arguer to consider and eliminate those possibilities, he or she can not rely on the assumption to make any sound recommendation.

In the second place, even if the market for mystery novels are expanding now, the arguer further assume that the trend will last continuously. Maybe the expansion of the market for mystery novels is temporal, because it is caused by some casual cases. However, in long run it is open to doubt whether readers can keep their interest in mystery novels. For that matter, the preference of readers will be indeterminate in the future, maybe when inspiring writers finish their mystery novels, readers’ interest has moved to romance novels. Unless the arguer excludes that possibility he or she can not make me take seriously his or her recommendation.

Last but not the least, even the expansion will last continuously the arguer assume further that all writers are good at composing mystery novels. Actually, specific writer has diverse gift, some do well in composing historical novels, while another one do well in composing detective novels. If only a writer make good use of his or her strong point, can he or she compose excellent novel.  Unfortunately, the arguer ignores the key point, which makes him doomed to make some sound recommendation.  

To sum up, the argument commits a series of logical flaws that makes it not tenable. In order to consolidate it, the arguer should justify the expansion of the market for mystery novel and adduce reliable evidence indicating that the expansion is long-last. In addition, the arguer should pay enough attention to the various gift of different writers.