argument137 『勇往直前小组』第一次作业

nornsUID：2325187

137.The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.

"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for
any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's
residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating)
as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about
the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the
river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation
is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has
announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of
the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to
increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands alo
ng the
Mason River."
当前，Mason市很少利用附近的Mason河来进行娱乐活动，尽管对该地区居民的几次调查一直指出他们把水上运动（游泳、垂钓和划船）作为他们最喜欢的娱乐形式。由于曾经存在对于这条河水质的投诉，居民一定是因为他们认为河水不够干净才不在这里活动。但这种情况就会改变了：我们地区负责河流管理的部门公布了澄清Mason河的计划。因此，河流的娱乐用途很可能将会增加，因而Mason市的市委有必要增加用于改善Mason河沿岸公共土地的预算。

The argument get into the conclusion that the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River, since the recreational use of the river will increase as a result of the river cleaning plan of the agency responsible for rivers in the region. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the agency's plan doesn’t necessarily guarantee that the Mason River can be clean up. Maybe the plan itself is not well designed so that it cannot get the expected result; or maybe people who carry out the plan are not well-prepared for the task. Even if all these are all well-prepared, it is also entire possible that the plan costs too much that it has to be delayed, In general, without the convincible evidence and detailed survey on this problem, we can not simply assert that the plan will works well and makes the water clean.

Secondly, even if the assumptions above are true, we cannot claim that when Mason River is clean up, the recreational use will necessarily rise. There are many possibilities lead to such situation. For example, maybe when the Mason River is clean, people have developed some new ways for pleasure. What’s more，it’s quite possible that there is another place that are suitable for recreational activities, which, compared with the Mason River, are far more beautiful in environment and continent in transports. Since the author failed to give information on these respects, this deduction is not quite convincible.

Finally, and also most fatally, even if all that have mentioned above are assumed with no errors, the rise of recreational use is not a convincible reason for the improvements of its budget. The author offers no evidence to demonstrate the relationships between the two-there is no descriptions and reports about the present state of the publicly owned lands. If the public owned lands are in states good enough for recreational activities, there is no need for the improvements even if the number of residents coming for fun rises.

To sum up, the argument is weak by several aspects as discussed above. To strength it, the arguer should provide details to support that if the number of residents who come to the Mason River for fun rises, the budget should be improved. To better bolster it, the arguer should offer evidence showing that if the river is clean up, the number of residents who come to the Mason River for fun will increase. Besides, the arguer must also prove that increase of the budget to the improvement to publicly owned lands along the Mason River is wealthy.

nornsUID：2325187

Argument：205（频次26，第3类比较引论），34（频次31，第4类现象分析），25（频次36，第1类由此及彼），9（频次31，第6类描述现象/解决问题）


99.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that
encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their
professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher
grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have
risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades
at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not
been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha
University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega
University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."

15年前，Omega大学实施了一项新措施，鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行评价。从那以后，Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数，Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30％。未来的雇主显然认为Omega的分数贬值了；这可以解释为什么Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成功。为使Omega毕业生找到好工作，我们应立即停止学生对教授的评价。

1in the first place,，Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数，不完全是Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30％的原因，教育质量提高..

2 in the second place， Omega与Alpha大学毕业生的比较没有提供足够信息；对比不具可信度
3论断认为分数贬值是工作不好找的原因。很多因素都会因响学生是否找到工作，其中很重要的一条是专业是否有市场，另外经济是在萧条期还是繁荣期也会影响到学生找工作。这些都不是学校某项措施就能保证的。

25
25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。

1因果谬误，时间.  Ocean View的经济提高不见得是因为修建了市高尔夫球场以及度假酒店的结果
2错误类比，在Hopewell修建地方性的高尔夫球场和度假胜地会和Ocean View一样收到更高的税收和促进经济

34.Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

牛奶和奶制品富含维生素D和钙，这是骨骼生长和维持所必须的物质。因此很多人相信多吃奶制品的饮食可以帮助预防骨质疏松症，这是一种骨骼随年龄而显著弱化而且与环境和基因因素相关联的疾病。但是一项对大量人群的长期研究发现那些在研究期间经常食用奶制品的人骨折发病率比其他参加研究的人要高。由于骨折是骨质疏松症的症状之一，这一研究结果表明富含奶制品的饮食实际上会增加而不是减少患骨质疏松症的危险。

1样本是否具有可比较性，比如喝牛奶多的主要是易动的少年和老人，前者因为喜爱运动。。后者老了。。
.2没有提供足够的证据证明，是骨质酥松症而不是其他的因素导致了骨折。可能有其他的原因
3.作者还忽略了导致骨质酥松的其他原因。不一定是牛奶导致的


205.The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.

"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."

去年10月Belleville市在其中央商业区安装了高照度灯光，那里的破坏公物的行为几乎立即减少。Amburg市最近开始在其中央商业区安排警察骑自行车巡逻，但破坏公物的发生率并没有变化。由于高照度灯光显然是震慑犯罪的最有效途径，我们也应该在Amburg全市安装这种灯光。通过以这种方式减少犯罪，我们可以使本市重新繁荣起来。


1因果谬误 时间不表征因果，没有足够证据表明安装了高照度灯光于破坏公物的行为几乎立即减少的因果关系
2错误类比
3hasty..上述论断不足以保证高照度灯光显然是震慑犯罪的最有效途径

[ 本帖最后由 norns 于 2007-7-20 23:06 编辑 ]

kattystarUID：2315333

条理好清楚，就是最后一句可能是太累了没看懂。 有几个不伤大雅的错， be clean up， Even if all these are all well-prepared，it is also entire possible ，will works well and makes the water clean.
we cannot claim that when Mason River is(will) clean up, the recreational use will necessarily rise.
There are many possibilities lead(ing) to such situation

睡觉去了，不过看你的文章学了很多东西哦:)

woodmanUID：161906

The argument get（gets）into the conclusion that the Mason City council will need to increase itsbudget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River,since the recreational use of the river will increase as a result of the rivercleaning plan of the agency responsible for rivers in the region. This line ofreasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
开头很简洁，很不错，学习

Firstly, the agency's plan doesn’t necessarily guarantee that the Mason Rivercan be clean up. Maybe the plan itself is not well designed so that it cannotget the expected result; or maybe people who carry out the plan are notwell-prepared for the task. Even if all these are all well-prepared, it is alsoentire（delete）possible that the plan costs too much that it has to be delayed. In general,without the convincible evidence and detailed survey on this problem, we cannot simply assert that the plan will works well and makes the water clean.

Secondly, even if the assumptions above are true, we cannot claim that when Mason Riveris clean(cleaned) up, the recreational use will necessarily rise.There are many possibilities lead to such situation. For example, maybe whenthe Mason River is clean, people have developedsome new ways for pleasure. What’s more，it’s quite possiblethat there is another place that are suitable for recreational activities,which, compared with the Mason River, are far more beautiful in environment andcontinent in transports. Since the author failed to give information on theserespects, this deduction is not quite convincible.

Finally, and also most fatally, even if all that have mentioned above areassumed with no errors, the rise of recreational use is not a convinciblereason for the improvements of its budget. The author offers no evidence todemonstrate the relationships between the two-there is no descriptions andreports about the present state of the publicly owned lands. If the publicowned lands are in states good enough for recreational activities, there is noneed for the improvements even if the number of residents coming for fun rises.

To sum up, the argument is weak by several aspects as discussed above. To strength(strengthen) it, the arguer should provide details to support that ifthe number of residents who come to the Mason River for fun rises, the budgetshould be improved. To better bolster it, the arguer should offer evidenceshowing that if the river is clean up, the number of residents who come to the Mason Riverfor fun will increase. Besides, the arguer must also prove that increase of thebudget to the improvement to publicly owned lands along the Mason Riveris wealthy.
观点都覆盖到了，总体不错，好话我就不说了，不足之处在于，每一小段里边的论证有点点到为止的感觉，还可以再稍微展开一下。然后用词与句式上有待进一步完善。

提纲基本差不多啦，呵呵

zhangjing106UID：2157010

已读完，没有找到我认为需要改动的地方，很流畅！
再看看我的文章，唉，差距太大了