argument53 『勇往直前小组』第十次作业linshao

linshaoUID??2338229

ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。

In this argument, the author claims that increased levels of melatonin in mother’s body can cause babies’ shyness during infancy and such shyness can continue into later life. Careful scrutiny of the evidence makes the argument unconvincing.

In the first place, the author makes a dubious assumption that the infants conceived in early autumn are more likely to be shyness as the result of a research. However, maybe the number of infants as 25 is too few to get a reliable conclusion. Besides, there is no evidence to show that the distress of infants is a representation of shyness. It is possible that the mild distress was caused by scare or fright, or even ordinary uncomfortableness which has little correlation with the personality.

Furthermore, granted these infants' distress have relation with the season they were born, the assumption that it is caused by the melatonin is unsound. No evidence to show that the melatonin have direct impact on infants' body. The only fact that it can affect the brain function is too vague to explain its function on infants. It is entirely possible that it affect mothers rather than infants. Is there any other hormone or other substance which are high in the early autumn? If so, the affection may be caused by such substance rather than melatonin. Or perhaps the climate of autumn have some unknown influence on it, or perhaps the sleeping style of these mothers are somewhat different in the autumn which had effect on the baby. Without ruling out these possibilities, we can not get the conclusion as the author gives.

Another problem of this argument is the unfair assumption that the teenagers' shyness have correlation with the experience early day when they in their mother’s matrixes. There is no information to demonstrate it. As we all know, the later education and family environment contribute a lot to the children's character. Perhaps such shy of these teenagers are more likely to infected by these factors-the family and school education. So without ruling out the alternative reasons that can contribute to someone's personality, we cannot get any conclusion rely on this study.

In sum, the argument is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide more information about the living habit of the mothers and the health condition of them in the autumn. The real reason cause the shy in these infants' later life is benefit too. Until the author informs us these, we can not take the argument seriously. Besides, the fact that response is shy or not need to be made clear.

提纲:

ARGUMENT100 - The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto Manufacturing Company.
"Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter, we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a large number of residents who are not currently employed."

由于上个季度我们主要产品的定单增加了200％多，我们应该马上通过在Summit City建造一座新工厂来扩大生产。Summit City是新工厂的理想位置，因为那里的地产税比较低，具有可以立即购买的大片土地，以及大量尚未就业的居民。

1．论者没有提供任何资料证明目前的设施不足以完成现有的订单。而且今后订单是否会继续上升或是保持与上个季度一样的水平不被保证，如果需求随即下滑，新建的厂房就会被闲置。

2．S是否是理想的地点有疑问，首先低税和闲置的土地只能说明当地可能发展较慢，其次闲置的土地是否适合建厂还有等进一步考证。第三较大的失业的人群是否有足够的素质完成我们的工作，第四该地的其它情况，比如交通、能源供应等问题如何。

ARGUMENT234 - The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.
"There is now evidence that the relaxed manner of living in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Mason City. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Mason City the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. And the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Mason City residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities."

现有证据表明，在小城市的悠闲生活方式比在大城市快节奏的生活更有利于健康和长寿。小城镇Leeville的商业行业所上报的员工病假天数比邻近大城市Mason要少。而且，Leeville每千人只有一名医生，而Mason市医生的比例是Leeville的五倍。Leeville居民的平均年龄显著高于Mason居。这些数据表明寻求更健康更长寿生活的人应该考虑移居到小型社区。

1．论者没有提供任何资料证明小镇居民身体健康。病假没意义，别忘了有人goldbrick。医生少也不能证明小镇居民不需要医生。可能医生不够，小镇的人还得跑大老远去找医生。而城市里医生多，很方便。

2．论者没有提供任何资料证明镇居民长寿。小镇可能住的都是一些老年人，大城市里都是忙碌的年轻人。

ARGUMENT208 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."

一些最近的调查表明，房主越来越强烈地希望节省能源，并且生产商现在正在推出很多比十年前的电器几乎节能两倍的家用电器，比如冰箱和空调。而且，更好的房屋隔热和被动式太阳能采暖的新技术已经可以用于减少家庭采暖所需的能源。因此，我们预计我们地区的用电需求总量不会增加，而可能有轻微下降。由于我们的已经运作了20年的三座发电站总能够满足需求，我们无需建造新的发电厂。

1．没有直接的证据表明现在的用电指数的走势。给的证据不足以保证这一点。首先，人们的愿望和新的家用电器的节能不能保证这样的结果。已经有的是否愿意换新的，而原来没有的买新的，必然就增加用电量。其次供暖用电下降，其他用电会上升。

2．没有直接证据证明三家电厂现在还能满足需求，而过去满足不代表现在还能满足。

ARGUMENT61 - The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.
"Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio. This means that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms. In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is 1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students, by the time they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology. Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology in the next few years."
在全国范围内，从幼儿园到12年级（K-12）学生所拥有电脑的比例是每5人有一台。教育界人士指出这是个很好的比例。这意味着在全国，所有学生都能够在他们的教室中每天接触和使用电脑。在Eyleria的K-12学校，电脑与学生数量的比例是1：7。这一数字足以保证Eyleria的所有学生到他们高中毕业的时候，将会拥有使用电脑的充足能力。因此，在未来几年没有理由花费任何学校的预算于电脑或其他技术。
1．论者没有提供资料说明所有的学生都能足够满意地用上电脑。
2．论者的论述没有说服力。首先他说全国的平均情况很好，但不意味他们的情况也好。另外论断有一个明显的逻辑漏洞，他说全国1比5好，那为什么我们1比7就足够了。他没有提供资料说明我们与全国平均情况的差别在哪里。这个例子也许更说明我们应该在电脑上多花钱。
3．如果目前电脑的数目够，但是技术却是日新月异的，而且还有其他的技术设备应该让学生掌握，所以还必须增加预算。

[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-31 22:51 编辑 ]

sweetbettyUID??2359460

In this argument, the author claims that increased levels of melatonin in mother’s body can cause babies’ shyness during infancy and such shyness can continue into later life. Careful scrutiny of the evidence makes the argument unconvincing.

In the first place, the author makes a dubious assumption that the infants conceived in early autumn are more likely to be shyness as the result of a research. However, maybe the number of infants as 25 is too few(small更好) to get a reliable conclusion. Besides, there is no evidence to show that the distress of infants is a representation of shyness. It is possible that the mild distress was caused by scare or fright, or even ordinary uncomfortableness which has little correlation with the personality.

Furthermore, granted these infants' distress have relation with the season they were born, the assumption that it is caused by the melatonin is unsound. No evidence to show that the melatonin have direct impact on infants' body. The only fact that it can affect the brain function is too vague to explain its function on infants. It is entirely possible that it affect mothers rather than infants. Is there any other hormone or other substance which are high in the early autumn? If so, the affection may be caused by such substance rather than melatonin. Or perhaps the climate of autumn have some unknown influence on it, or perhaps the sleeping style of these mothers are somewhat different in the autumn which had effect on the baby. Without ruling out these possibilities, we can not get the conclusion as the author gives.

Another problem of this argument is the unfair assumption that the teenagers' shyness have correlation with the experience early day when they （are） in their mother’s matrixes. There is no information to demonstrate it. As we all know, the later education and family environment contribute a lot to the children's character. Perhaps such shy of these teenagers are more likely to infected by these factors-the family and school education. So without ruling out the alternative reasons that can contribute to someone's personality, we cannot get any conclusion rely(词性有问题) on this study.

In sum, the argument is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide more information about the living habit of the mothers and the health condition of them in the autumn. The real reason cause the shy in these infants' later life is benefit too. Until the author informs us these, we can not take the argument seriously. Besides, the fact that response is shy or not need to be made clear.
写的不错 层次很清楚 论证的也很好 继续加油

linshaoUID??2338229

谢谢sweet！
不过我感觉写得过于模版化了。