Argument147 [戮力同心小组]第十二次作业 by sofia

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ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

The author of this memo cites several evidence to prove that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase in the next few months, however, none of them lend useful support the conclusion as it stands.

To begin with, the memo fails to convince that the results of the survey are statistically reliable. We don't know the age, background, average time and expense the respondents spent on the video games. If they are under 10 years old, they are not typical to represent of the consumer  of the video game companies, since they may not have much time spending on the games as result of a lot of school task. Also, they don't have jobs, all expense is from their parents, let alone a large amount of money spent on this games.

What's more, even if the respondents are the major groups of consumer, the author attribute the two-year decline of the video games to the problem that the new games and ad campaign can solve. Yet it is entirely possible that other factors determine the decline during the past two years，such as the excessive price, disperse strategies and poor management. Besides, maybe the advertisement company which promote Whirlwind video games also promote Whirlwind’s similar product before, it is probably proved that this advertisement company is not capable for catching the consumers’ attention to the production itself---indirectly cause the decline. Lacking such evidence, I cannot be convinced that this action will reverse the sale trends.

Finally, even though the author could substantiate the foregoing assumptions. I remain unconvinced that the video games are likely to increase dramatically just in the next few months, since the author ignores the possible factors about the condition of needs and supports. First, providing that this company supplies a large number of the game, bur they haven't consider much about the actual needs. Maybe the price of their video game is so expensive according to their big devotion, that many of the players cannot afford it. Second, it is likely that in that region there are more competitive companies serving cheaper price as well as wonderful game quality--more lifelike graphics, and they have had attracted many consumers, already gaining a large slice of market. Third, perhaps it is not the season of the sales. Normally the best season for the game market is summer and winter when their major consumers—students are staying at home without pressure of study. Maybe this kind of game comes into the market just after the winter holiday or summer holiday. If so, the author must modify the prediction accordingly. All of this possible facts, therefore, weaken the author's arguments.
   
In sum, the argument relies on the assumption is weak. Only after evaluating all-sided considerations might the sales of Whirlwind video games increase dramatically in the next few months.