argument65 求拍 另有一点小疑惑~

abzeroUID: 2308499

ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in amemo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in ourchain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Lastyear, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were alldomestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates anincreasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since ourcompany can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improveprofits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varietiesof imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
______________________________________________________________________________________________________


The author of this memo claims that thecheese stores should concentrate on domestic cheeses and discontinue stockingimported cheese in order to improve profits. To support this conclusion, theauthor gives us the fact that the best-selling cheeses at the newest store weredomestic. And he/she also cites the result of a survey by a magazine regardingpreference of cheeses. However, this argument suffers from several criticalfallacies.

Firstly, the author makes a fallacy ofhasty generalization. The sale records of the newest store do littlecontribution to his/her conclusion. The reason why the five best-sellingcheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin maybe other than these cheeses meet thecustomers' preference. Perhaps, the prices of these cheeses are much lower thanimported ones. Or perhaps, the newest store has no enough stock of importedcheeses for sale. Since the memo fails to account thealternative explanation for the sales records, the president cannot make anysound recommendations to these stores based on this record.

Secondly, even if the customers of thisnewest store prefer domestic cheddar cheeses, the experience of only one store isinsufficient to draw the assumption that these cheeses will also be popular inother stores, for the customer taste varies throughout the country.

Thirdly, the argument is based on a flawedanalogy. The author overlooks the difference between the respondents of thesurvey by Cheeses of the World magazine and the cheese customers when cites thedata of this survey. It is entirely possible that the respondents cannot representthe overall population of customers. Maybe these respondents are mainlyprofessional chiefs whose preference are much different with other people, sotheir advice cannot reflect the true mind of the overall customers.

Finally, the author precludes otherpossible measures to improve profits. For instance, the chain of cheese storesmay try to decrease the costs of renting house or transport business, or theycan hold some activities to attract more people to buy their cheeses. Unlessgiven more detailed information, I cannot be persuaded by the conclusion thatthe best way to improve profits is to discontinuce stocking imported cheese andconcentrates primarily on domestic cheeses.

In sum, the conclusion is unconvinced forits poor assumption and weak evidence. To strengthen the conclusion, the authorneeds to give us more direct evidence to demonstrate that the domestic cheddarcheeses are popular and more detailed information about his stores.


四百零几个字 是不是哪里还能在写长一点呢？ 我觉得如果写五段的话自己很难写到四百，怎么办，是因为论证的不够深入吗？

luckylijiyingUID: 2348193

据新东方老师说400+够了。也可以准备一些常见错误的反驳模版来增添字数。

abzeroUID: 2308499

补一下提纲：
1，国产奶酪卖得好不一定是因为受欢迎，可能是价格问题或者货源有限
2，一家店的经验不能推广
3，调查的回答者和顾客不同 false ananlgy
4，没有考虑其他降低成本的方法

现在想想，因为价格低而受欢迎似乎也应该是受欢迎的一种，应该再找一个其他的他因
第三个错误归为false analogy似乎不是很妥当
大家觉得呢?