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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
Outline:
1. 没有指出下滑的原因,后面的调查没有针对性
2. 调查指出最重要的因素不一定和销售量有关,还有其它很多因素影响
3. 没有说明调查人群的年龄,而推出的游戏广告是针对10-25
4. 广告的效用难以证实
The editorial concludes with the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. According to the corporation just advertise for several games catering to consumer. However, the causes have no persuasion before some factors being checked.
First of all, the arguer don’t point out the real cause resulted in the decline of the sales in the past tow years. So the survey about most important features in a video game has no correlativity to this special case. Maybe the management problem of the corporation, not product’s problem, made the decline. Or maybe the counterworker is more competitive. Even maybe the market of video-game has shrunk. Unless the arguer provides the reason of the decline, the survey can’t deduce any conclusion about the sales.
Moreover, even though the quantity of the video game is one of the reasons, the improvement of the most important feature in a video game is not enough to make a video-game player decide to buy the game. Because there are so many other factors, such as price, sound effect, propagandizing and so on. The demanded computer is also an important aspect. No one will buy a game which can’t play in his own computer. Unless he plans to spend more money on computer’s updating.
Thirdly, the detailed information of the video-game players in the survey isn’t mentioned at all. However, the advertising just directed at people at 10 to 25 years old. If the age of most informants is out of the range from 10 to 25, how to prove people at 10 to 25 years old also think a lot of life graphics? Other information, like the quantitative of the informant, is also important to get the conclusion.
Finally, the effect of the advertising is considerable to doubt. It is difficult to scale advertising’s action on sales. Maybe it will just work after several years. How the editorial draw the conclusion that the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months?
In sum, If the arguer don’t list the reason of the decline in the past two years, the relative between sales and quantity, the detail of the survey, and the real effect of the advertising in next few months, it is too rash to draw the conclusion. |
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