Argument147 [老兵小组] 第一次作业

wy86917UID: 2335014

147
结论：W的销售会上升
事实：前几年销售下降——》面向游戏者的调查&广告——》结论

提纲：
1结论不合理
2销售下降多方面原因（经济不景气，网络免费资源下载，其他公司的竞争，整个行业不景    气。。。），而非简单电子游戏玩家
3调查的设计不合理——最关心的东西未必和销售量直接挂钩，其他因素也占很大比重：音乐，情节，游戏类型。。。另外，高配置电脑不是人人玩的起
4即使面向游戏玩家，部分也不能代替整体，玩家分不同年龄层次，未知调查的样本，比例等
另外，10——25不是最具有消费实力的群体，故即使爱玩也未必有钱买，而且学业负担重，也未必有时间玩
5结论。。。



TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS:407         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-2-3 下午 09:47:43

The speaker predicts the increasing sales of Whirlwind video games in the following few months, on the basis of the survey towards video-game players and the advertising campaign. However, I cannot with the speaker's conclusion, for the reasons below.

Firstly, the speaker simply contributes the reason of decreasing sales to the video-game players, while ignoring other factors leading to the decline. As we know, video-game business is easily susceptible to the influence of economic depression, the competition from new companies; and the most enemy is the pirates, especially at a time when communication is so thriving and the Internet could help a lot about the illegal sellers. Thus, without the statement exclusive the influence from such factors above, I cannot focus totally on the players who might still keep high enthusiasm on buying in the past two years.

In the second place, the survey is ill-designed, even if other factors are irrespective. The speaker simply makes a direct relationship between the sales and the features players care most. The graphics may decide how a player likes a game, but hardly decide the sales. After all, the buying decision depends on complex considerations, like the music, the story or the competitive ability of such a game; and what's most important is the price. Different people are due to different reasons, which are hardly covered by the sole graphics one. What is more, as mentioned, such lifelike-graphics game requires the most up-to date computer, which has already limited customers to a small scale--no one can make sure that the worldwide players are all rich ones who could keep their equipments best, even for the plain reason of games.

The third mistake the speaker made is the advertising campaign towards people 10 to 25 years old, which cannot guarantee the growing sales for two respects. On the one hand is that such group may the one like playing best, but not the group owning the mainstream shopping ability. The true group who spark a boon in game sales are the one earning and like video games.  One the other hand, the speaker raise none of date or persuading materials to improve the 10 to 25 age group can represents all levels of players, especially the economic independent group.

In sum, the speaker makes a unsound conclusion with unrepresentative group and a weak-persuading survey. If the speaker could consider other factors, the argument would be more believable.

[ 本帖最后由 wy86917 于 2008-2-4 00:27 编辑 ]