argument38--thrive小组第四次作业

舒子baxiaUID: 2401739

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 411          TIME: 00:39:22          DATE: 2008-1-30 10:39:39

The arguer strongly recommends that people should use lchthaid daily to reduce absenteeism. The recommendation is based on the fact that people in East Meria consumes a mass of fish and they only visit the doctor only twice per year, along with the fact that lchthaid is derived from fish oil. In addtion, the arguer points out that cold are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work. However, through in-dept analysis, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands.

First and foremost, the arguer concludes that people not often catch cold rely on the mere fact that they visit doctor twice per year for the treatment of colds. Without more information, nevertheless,   it is totally possible that when people in East Meria catch a cold, rather than receive treatment in hospital, they prefer to take medicine at home. Even if the conclusion has been substantiated, no evidence showed that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Perhaps people in East Meria are fond of exercise, or the climate there is good and weather never changed suddenly. Either explanation will undermine the reliability of this recommendation.

In addition, granted that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds, it is hasty to infer that lchthaid will prevent colds similarly. The process of producing lchthaid is a process of abstraction, no evidence indicates that the essential substance that prevent colds has remain in lchthaid. Consequently, it is likely that lchthaid will not prevent colds, what's worse, perhaps lchthaid has some side effect that will cause other diseases. Failing to account for these possibilities, the arguer cannot make any sound recommendation.

Finally, another assumption that the argument rests on is people often absent for colds. However, the arguer provides no evidence to substantiate that this is the case. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people take many private affair leave or absent for other reasons. Or perhaps people pretend to be ill to free from studying or working. If either is the case, eating lchthaid daily will do nothing to reduce absenteeism and people will find other pretexts to escape from working.

To summarize, the recommendation is not well supported as it suffers from the foregoing flaws. In order to better bolster it, more evidence confirming the fact that people in East Meria indeed rarely catch cold as a result of consumes much fish should be provided. Besides, more information about why people absent are needed.