Argument65 Thrive小组第7次作业 求拍

vic_rainUID: 2304309

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 415          TIME: 00:35:22          DATE: 2008-2-18 16:40:29

This memo recommends that the chain of cheese stores should stock only domestic cheeses rather than a wide variety of imported cheeses to improve profits in all of their stores. To justify this recommendation, the author notes that the five best-selling cheeses in their newest store were all domestic cheeses. The author also cites a recent survey in which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Nevertheless, close scrutiny reveals several flaws in this memo, which renders it unconvincing.

First, the fact that the five best-selling cheeses in their newest stores were all domestic cheeses does not necessarily indicate the same selling records in other stores, since the author supply no evidence that this is the case. It is entirely possible that, for example, the newest store located in the region with poor economic development and the local people can only afford to the less expensive domestic cheeses while they actually prefer to the imported ones. For that matter, the better-selling cheeses in other kinds of stores might be the imported ones.

Secondly, the author unfairly assumes that the cited survey is statistically reliable. If the surveyed subscribers are not representative of the overall population of the cheeses subscribers, the result might not make any sense. Besides, even though an increasing preference might be true, the actual level of the preference of domestic cheeses might also be very slow. If so, then on the basis of the survey it makes no sense to favor the actually lower preferred domestic cheeses over the imported ones.

Thirdly, even if I were to concede that the domestic cheeses in all their stores sell well, they would not necessarily be profitable as a result, saying nothing improved profit. For all we know, profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Perhaps these stores' costs of obtaining high-quality, healthy domestic cheeses, or of new sales promotion strategy, render them unprofitable despite their popularities. Without weighing revenue against expenses, the author's conclusion is premature at best.

In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To make it more logically acceptable, the author should provide evidence that the domestic cheeses earn a significant preference over the imported ones and this trends will continue in the foreseeable future. To better evaluate this argument, I need more information about the demographic profile of the survey's respondents. Finally, I would need detailed cost and revenue estimates for the new stocking varieties to determine the likelihood that popularity would turn a profit.