Argument147【火箭 小组】第一次作业

cloudwind-greUID: 2462220

ARGUMENT：147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

字数：467

    The editorial considers that the sales of Whirlwind video-games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this viewpoint, the editorial cites the following facts: (1) a recent survey of video-game players suggests that the degressive tendency which has lasted for two years is about to be reversed. (2) The survey exhibits that lifelike graphics is the most important features to which player prefer. (3) Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with advertising campaign directing at people 10 to 25 years old. Close scrutiny of each those facts, however, reveals that none of them can support the editorial's conclusion.
     Survey methodology in the editorial above might be problematic in two respects: First, we are not informed what the respondents come from and whether they can representative of the overall video-game player. the respondents between 10 to 25 might just occupy low percentage in that survey or the respondents were in fact not interest in those types of games which Whilwind product. This indicates that the editorial can not predict that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase.
    Secondly, even the survey is statistically reliable, the editorial unfairly assume that the video-game player will certainly interest in Whirlwind's new game. The editorial contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking those evidence it is equally possible that the product of such games are too expensive for the player or that those games are supposed to be harmful to children by parents. Thus, no mater how wonderful Whirlwind's games, player might fail to afford them or they are prohibited to purchase them.
    Thirdly, introducing such game with advertise accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the conclusion. Because even if the price of Whirlwind's games is cheap enough for their customs and the players are free enough to purchase those games, the inefficient work of a bad advertise corporation might ultimately result in the failure of Whirlwhind. To better assess the conclusion, the editorial must guarantee the effect of advertisement is resultful.
    Finally, even if the editorial can attest the assumptions above, two compelling arguments have to be taken seriously by the administrator of Whirlwind. First, its counterworkers might also have acquired the same information and have introduced similar games to the market with lower price and higher quality. Secondly, Whirlwind should make sure the season rule of video-games' sales. It might be just the acme of the periods that boost the sale of games in the next few months.
    To sum up, the conclusion of the editorial is not persuasive. To bolster it the editorial must provide clearer evidence: (1) Is the survey statistically reasonable? (2) Are there some other causations that might equally prevent people to purchase video-games? (3) What is the situation of Whirlwind's competitors and what is the video-game sales' period rule.

[ 本帖最后由 cloudwind-gre 于 2008-6-8 18:22 编辑 ]