argument45 【7\8\9\10】 7.19(第一次作业)

野猪大改造UID: 2484392

大家使劲拍 写的第一篇argument 必回拍！！！！！


In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To justify this claim, the author cites a report dictating that the deer populations are declining and the facts about the deer's living habits and a coincidence. However, I find that there are some critical flaws in this argument.

The major problem with this argument is that the author fails to provide evidence to support the casual relationship between global warming trends and the sea ice's melting. Although they happen at the same time, we can not draw the conclusion that the global warming trends will definitely leads to the sea ice's melting. Because the global trend does not imply the local trend of Canada's arctic region, it is very likely that the temperatures of some other places are increasing significantly, which contribute to the global warming trends, while the temperature in Canada's arctic region is keeping constant or even decreasing.

Even if we suppose that it is the global warming trends that leads to the sea ice's melting, that is we assumes that the temperature in Canada's arctic region is increasing, while the author provide no evidence to support the casual relationship between deer's changing migration patterns and the increasing temperature. Maybe the local hunters are hunting excessively now or the deer's food is declining significantly, they also can be the reason for the decline of deer population. Unless the author excludes other factors that may cause the deer population to decrease, this reasoning is flawed.  

Thirdly, another flaw with this argument is that the author assumes that the deer population is declining. However, this assumption is based on the local hunters' reports, so we could question the creditability of the report and the whether the hunters' reports can reflect the trend of the deer populations. There are many possibilities, such as the hunters inspect deer at the wrong time, at which deer are resting or its appearance is very rare; hunters give fake report because of the sake for a higher price of deer, as it is known to all, this fake report may give others a illusion: the deer is so rare that its price will be increasing.

To sum up, this argument is open to doubt because the author has ignored many aspects of the conclusion of this argument. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the deer population, the temperature in Canada's arctic region and other factors which may affect deer population.

tsayUID: 2492916

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To justify this claim, the author cites a report dictating that the deer populations are declining and the facts about the deer's living habits and a coincidence. However, I find that there are some critical flaws in this argument.(模板套用不对 你既然说conclude 后面就用conclusion)

The major problem with this argument is that the author fails to provide evidence to support the casual relationship between global warming trends and the sea ice's melting. Although they happen at the same time, we can not draw the conclusion that the global warming trends will definitely leads to the sea ice's melting. Because the global trend does not imply the local trend of Canada's arctic region, it is very likely that the temperatures of some other places are increasing significantly, which contribute to the global warming trends, while the temperature in Canada's arctic region is keeping constant or even decreasing
Even if we suppose that it is the global warming trends that leads to the sea ice's melting, that is we assumes(语法错误) that the temperature in Canada's arctic region is increasing, while the author provide no evidence to support the casual relationship between deer's changing migration patterns and the increasing temperature. (这句话不对)Maybe the local hunters are hunting excessively now or the deer's food is declining significantly, they also can be the reason for the decline of deer population. Unless the author excludes other factors that may cause the deer population to decrease, this reasoning is flawed.  

Thirdly, another flaw with this argument is that the author assumes that the deer population is declining. However, this assumption is based on the local hunters' reports, so we could question the creditability of the report and the whether the hunters' reports can reflect the trend of the deer populations. There are many possibilities, such as the hunters inspect deer at the wrong time, at which deer are resting or its appearance is very rare; hunters give fake report because of the sake for a higher price of deer, as it is known to all, this fake report may give others a illusion: the deer is so rare that its price will be increasing.

To sum up, this argument is open to doubt because the author has ignored many aspects of the conclusion of this argument. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the deer population, the temperature in Canada's arctic region and other factors which may affect deer population.
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