In this argument, the author points out that arctic deer move over ice from island to island for searching for food. The author also points out that some local hunters report that the deer populations are declining, which coincides with the global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. On the basis of this line of reasoning the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is because they are unable to continue to migrate across the frozen sea. This argument contains several critical flaws, which render it unconvincing.
A threshold problem with this argument involves that the author does not provide enough information about the reports from local hunters. No detail about the absolute number or percentage of arctic deer amount declined is provided. Naturally, we should consider the credibility of the reports from local hunters. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that the arctic deer populations are not decreasing。
Even if the reports from local hunters are trustable, the populations of arctic deer live in the whole arctic region may be not reducing..(可不可以认为local hunters就是canada's region呢?) It is entirely possible arctic deer are moving to some other areas in Arctic Circle during the last several years. Therefore the populations of the arctic dear in the local region are declining, but not the total amount in the arctic area. Without the statistics about all arctic deer, the author cannot justify his claim.
The author also assumes unfairly that the sea ice melting caused by recent global warming trends can keep arctic deer from their migration patterns. The warning environment may only make a little sea ice melt, which cannot separate islands during the course of a year, and then arctic deer only need to find longer ways or have fewer months to move from island to island than before. In this situation, recent global warming trends cannot explain the decline in arctic deer populations.(这里 有个明显的范围类错误全球趋势不代表该地区,可以补充说明一下哈)
Finally, even if the author can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, the author's claim that arctic deer cannot follow their age-old migration patterns is the main reason of the deer populations decline is still unwarranted. The author overlooks a myriad of other possible reasons for the decline, such as human-made pollution and even too much hunting from the local hunters. Without accounting for other factors that may contribute to the decline in arctic deer populations, the author cannot persuade me.
In sum, the author's argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author should provide systemic statistics about arctic deer populations and better evidence that the sea ice melting caused by recent global warming trends which can keep deer from migration, and also should prove being unable to migrate is the main reason for the arctic deer populations' reduction.
文章思路很清晰值得借鉴!