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zhuzhuorUID: 2452739

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buctcontrolUID: 2392206

In this letter, the author points out that the town council of Balmer should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of Balmer Island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in order to reduce the number of moped accidents. The author also points out that the town council of the neighboring island, Torseau, achieved the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents after they enforced similar limitations on moped rentals last year. On the basis of this line of reasoning the author concludes that the town council of Balmer is sure to attain the same percent reduction as Torseau's. This argument contains several critical flaws, which render it unconvincing.

A threshold problem with the argument is that limiting the number of moped rentals in Balmer may be not able to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. The author unfairly assumes that it is the mopeds rented by the companies what mainly cause the moped accidents in Balmer. It is possible that most of people in Balmer use their own mopeds, and the number of moped rentals from each company is hardly over 30 per day. In this situation, limiting the number of rented mopeds to 30 per day would fail to reduce the number of accidents. On the other hand, the limitations on the moped rentals might force certain citizens to buy their own mopeds, and then the incremental number of mopeds would worsen the traffic situation. As a result, the number of moped accidents maybe increase. In brief, lacking solid evidence that limiting the number of moped rentals could significantly reduce the accidents, the author cannot persuade me.

The author also assumes unfairly that the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents in Torseau(Balmer) is result of the similar limits enforced by the Torseau's town council. The author may ignore a host of other possible policies implemented at the same time to reduce the number of moped accidents, which are not mentioned in this letter. Maybe the town council of Torseau strengthened the traffic restricts last year, which has significantly smoothed the traffic condition. Without ruling out all other possible factors that may contribute to the accident reduction in Balmer, the author cannot justify his claim.

Finally, even if the author can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, the author's assertion that the Balmer's town council can achieve the same percent reduction as the Torseau's is still unwarranted. There may be a myriad of differences between Balmer and Torseau, such as population, traffic condition, and the composition of the traffic tools. By enforcing the similar limitations as Torseau's, the council of Balmer Island might not be able to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents.

In sum, the author's conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author should provide better evidence that the limitation on moped rental in Torseau mainly cause the accident reduction and the similar limitation would take the same effort in Balmer as in Torseau.
结尾好像没有总结关于第二段中所表述的关于事故和租车的问题以及30辆车数字的不严谨问题的解决方案。
3，4段中的观点我觉得属于第二段观点的子观点，并列属于T岛的经验无法搬到B岛上。
行文很流畅，逻辑分析也挺详细，写的挺不错的。

zhuzhuorUID: 2452739

一针见血啊
我写完了修改的时候才感觉提纲列坏了, 第一个论点limiting the number of moped rentals in Balmer may be not able to reduce the number of accidents跟作者的最终观点有点近似...
然后3 4段就感觉比第2段低一个层次...囧