argument65 【7\8\9\10】 7.19(第13次作业)

野猪大改造UID: 2484392

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 419          TIME: 00:25:03          DATE: 2002-1-1 2:04:31

In this argument, the author concludes that the best way to improve profits the stores for the stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese. The reasoning seems appealing at first glance, while clearly examining the author's reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several fallacies.

The first problem in this argument is that the author attributes a characteristic of their newest store to all the stores as a whole. The author assumes that the best-selling cheeses at the newest store will be the best-selling products at other stores, while the evidence provided in this argument is insufficient to lend support to this assumption. It is entirely possible that the five best-selling cheeses are on sale at the newest store, which accounts for the phenomenon in the newest store. Or the people who went to buy cheese at the newest store have a preference for cheeses from Wisconsin.

Secondly, the author assumes that the survey conducted by magazine reveals an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. However, the survey is insufficient to warrant the assumption because there is no reason to believe that the subscribers drawn by the magazine is representative of all the people who are inclined to buy cheeses. It is equally possible that subscribers of the magazine are more willing to buy domestic cheeses, while the amount is so little to reflect the general attitudes towards cheeses.

Thirdly, even if there is an increasing preference for domestic cheeses, the author provides insufficient evidence to suggest that discontinuing stocking many of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses will cause the improvement of profit in all of their stores. It seems that the author ignores many other factors that might affect the profit: the location of a store, the profit of a single product or the amount of cheeses which are sold. Even if this approach will lead to the expected outcome, the author also presents a dilemma by imposing an either-or choice between two courses of action that need not be mutually exclusive. Because the author indicates that this approach is the best choice without providing evidence to justify it.


In sum, this argument is open to doubt because the author relies on unrepresentative evidence and survey to draw the conclusion. To better evaluate the reasoning, the author had better provide more information concerning the creditability of survey, the condition of the newest store and the profits of all the stores.