argument20【today is the day小组】第7次作业 by baby12036

baby12036UID: 2522977

题目：ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
字数：418          用时：00:45:00          日期：2008-8-8 17:30:31

The argument recommend the council if Balmer Island(BI) should limit the whole number of  mopeds rented everyday, in order to reduce the accidents involving the mopeds and pedestrians. To support the recommendation, the arguers cite the success of a similar measure enforced by the nearby island of Torseau. Although the argument seems somehow reasonable at first glance, it suffers several logical problems as I discuss below.
To begin with, the analogy between the BI and the neighboring island of Torseau, which the argument's recommendation relies on, is a false one. There is no evidence in the argument show that the factors involving the cause of the moped accidents are same or similar. Perhaps the population of the island of Torseau is rather small so the main causes for the accident are all relevant to the mopeds. Or perhaps the basis of the rented mopeds per day is much larger than the BI, so the restriction on the number of mopeds had turned out to be rather effective. If so, the recommendation will be quite unreliable.
Secondly, the arguer fails to rule out other possible methods on reducing the accidents. Lacking of evidence prove the restriction on the number of mopeds, as the argument assumes, are the best choice the council has. It might be entirely possible for the council of BI to find more effective means, such as improving the road condition and establishing some better regulation on the issue, etc. Not even mention the dissatisfaction the 6 companies may have because of the decreasing profit on the recommended method. Therefore, the argument's gratuitous assumes that  the method is the most effective without taking others into account.
Finally, it is unreasonable for the arguer to assume that the restriction only have to be executed in summer. There's no evidence shows us that the casual relation between the different condition of seasons and the happening of the accidents. No one can deny the possibility that the number of accidents on other seasons is larger than on summer. It will be unreasonable for us to only bring the regulation into effect on summer without more detail evidence.
To sum up, the argument is unreasonable as it stands. To strengthen the argument, I need to know more information about the similarity of the two island and much more detail of the comparison of effectiveness between the restriction of mopeds and other possible methods.
In addition, the arguer should provide more information about why the regulation can only be effective on summer.

第一次限制时间还多给了自己15分钟,写的不还多体谅哈

FreePeterUID: 2402482

The argument recommend the council if Balmer Island(BI) should limitthe whole number of  mopeds rented everyday, in order to reduce theaccidents involving the mopeds and pedestrians. To support therecommendation, the arguers cite the success of a similar measureenforced by the nearby island of Torseau. Although the argument seemssomehow reasonable at first glance, it suffers several logical problemsas I discuss below.

To begin with, the analogy between the BI and the neighboring island ofTorseau, which the argument's recommendation relies on, is a false one.There is no evidence in the argument show that the factors involvingthe cause of the moped accidents are same or similar. Perhaps thepopulation of the island of Torseau is rather small so the main causesfor the accident are all relevant to the mopeds. Or perhaps the basisof the rented mopeds per day is much larger than the BI,(这句没看懂，是说T的rented mopeds比较多么？) so therestriction on the number of mopeds had turned out to be rathereffective. If so, the recommendation will be quite unreliable.

Secondly, the arguer fails to rule out other possible methods onreducing the accidents. Lacking of evidence prove the restriction onthe number of mopeds, as the argument assumes, are the best choice thecouncil has. It might be entirely possible for the council of BI tofind more effective means, such as improving the road condition andestablishing some better regulation on the issue, etc. Not even mentionthe dissatisfaction the 6 companies may have because of the decreasingprofit on the recommended method.(我知道你的意思，不过应该把这个作为这个recommendation的劣势) Therefore, the argument's gratuitousassumes that  the method is the most effective without taking othersinto account.
(个人觉得这篇argument还是有不少其他可以攻击的，所以不建议专门攻击necessary，个人一直觉得除非有best之类的限定词否则最好不要专门攻击比较好，纯属个人观点)

Finally, it is unreasonable for the arguer to assume that therestriction only have to be executed in summer. There's no evidencewhich shows us that the casual relation between the different condition ofseasons and the happening of the accidents. No one can deny thepossibility that the number of accidents on other seasons is largerthan on summer. It will be unreasonable for us to only bring theregulation into effect on summer without more detail evidence.
（其实这一段可以使用让步攻击，即使确实有效，为什么只在夏天进行？)

To sum up, the argument is unreasonable as it stands. To strengthen theargument, I need to know more information about the similarity of thetwo island and much more detail of the comparison of effectivenessbetween the restriction of mopeds and other possible methods. In addition, the arguer should provide more information about why the regulation can only be effective on summer.

总体结构还不错，
不过个人觉得把necessary攻击可以换掉。如果改成
1. T不一定是依靠这个策略降低的。
2. 让步，T和BI不一定有比较性。
这样攻击效果更好感觉。