argument20 today is the day 第七次作业by tingtingjenny

tingtingjennyUID: 2431377

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."


The editor recommend the Balmer Island Gazette limit the moped numbers that rented by island rental companies in order to achive the goal of decrease moped accident to 50%. The editor also cites that the populations in Balmer Island increased and the neighboring island of Torseau pose the same limit have acquire the decrease of moped accidents. However, after carefully evaluation, this recommendation suffered from several logical flows that render it is inconvincible.

To begin with, the editor unfairly assume that the increasing in population of Balmer Island would definitely lead to reasonable necessarily to decrease the number of accidents of moped and pedestrians. It is possibly that the increased population would pose no pressure on traffic accidents as the populations are more like to stay at home instead go out side by any means of traffic tools. Also, the increased populations might attract more by go outside use cars and more car accidents. With out evidence to prove the increased populations would pose accidents on mopes and pedestrians, no deduction could be made based on the mere assumption.

Secondly, even assuming the increased population would lead to the increasing moped and pedestrians accidents. the editor's recommendation to limit the number of mopeds rented by the rental companies is enough and the right way to reduce the accidents. Perhaps the increased number of mopeds and pedestrians are derived from the number of cars and other traffic tools, or because of road condition in Balmer Island need to be reformed, even, populations aware of traffic principles need to be propelled. Any scenario of these conditions would diminish strengthen of editor's recommendation.

Finally, the editor made an unwarranted analogy between Balmer Island and Torseau. Since there is no evidence to support that the decreased moped and pedestrians accidents' numbers were derived from the limits imposed on rental companies, perhaps the populations aware of traffic principles were increased or the moped's manipulate techniques are advanced. Nor could the same limitation would lead the same results in two different place, unless the editor render firm evidence to prove the two place have entirely same condition is road conditions, or populations understand the traffic principle at same levels. Without provide evidence to support the questionable assumptions, the editor could not draw any conclusion based on the compare.

To sum up, this recommendation is inconvincible as it stands, to provide a more effective recommendation, the author must shown more evidence that the increased population would lead the necessary to decrease the moped accidents, and the limitation posed on rental companies are right enough to reduce the moped accident. moreover, to make an effective compare between Balmer and Torseau, the survey on the two place to investigate the traffic situation and make compare is indispensable