ARGUMENT20【today is the day】 第2次作业 紫薇花开

紫薇花开UID: 2461167

Topic:  the  following   appeared  in  a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island   Gazette


The fact that last year the town council of Torseasu's town decreased the rental of mepod and bicycle frome 50 pe day to 30 per day last summer , leading to the reduction of the numer of accidents by 50 percent and the population of Balmer Island have increased to 100.000,As a result ,the town council of  Balmer Island want to mechanically copy the method of the rental of limit to hold the nember  of accidents .However ,the argument have some fatel weakness weaking the conviction about the  argument
  

In the first place, it is questionable that the measure adopted by the neighboring instead of Torseau to limit the number of rental s  will achieve similar success  at Balmer Island

first, the arguer takes no attention to the number of rental companies on moped and bicycle and production in Torseau town  ,so that we have reasons to believe that there is only two or one rental companies ,and when they limit the number of mopeds, nationally, the number of accidents obviously decrease.However in  Balmer Island there are a large number of population and six rental companies ,even if adopting the similar redution method the Balmer Island   town council can't be sure to gain a little number of accident . Althoughthey are sure to attain the 50  percent reduction in accidents
  
besides ,the arger fail to support evidence to the assumption that the Balmer Island   town could have a reduction of 50 percent .we all know that the cause of accident have a multiple aspects--such as the skills of riding moped aand bicycle about people in Balmer Island  town,the road condition ,police force--which may be more effective on the accident, the number of rental moped and bicycle just as a relevant aspect but not the direct reason accouting for the accident .so only by enhancing the road condition, increasing police force and improving the skill of riding moped and bicycle , may it be more effective in reducing accidents rates involving mopeds and pedestrians

In the second place , In the absence of any information concening the causes of accidents in Balmer Island .the arguer is begging the question in recommending limits  on the number of mopeds rented during just one season of  the whole year from the argument , it is easily for us to see the result of reduction on accidents is based on the whole year in Torseau town ,Meanwhile the arguer require a  same result just in one season of the whole year by adopting the same measur .Simply put ,whithout the other effects of cause there is no quality of comparision between the two town .

Frome the analizing about the analysis , we can easily conclude that the arger take an fallicous analogy  betweenTorseau town and Balmer Island ,make a hasty assumption that just by reduce the number of rental moped ,and get a causal oversimlication on the moped accident for convicing ue ,the arguer should support a enhancing conviction by provding us the specific evidence about the two town ,such ad the police and terrain, makimg a reasonable plan on the limit time and ata last supporting a  secific statistics on the number of moped companies and number of accident on both of the towns

woyunUID: 2522051

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