argument20【today is the day】第七次作业 by revealiing

revealingUID: 2507748

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

In this letter, the arguer attempts to conclude that by limiting the number of rental mopeds, Balmer Island will attain 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in Torseau. To justify the argument, the arguer reasons that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. Moreover, the arguer also points out that the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits last year. As it stands, the argument is well-presented but not thoroughly well-reasoned.

To begin with, it is obvious that the arguer appreciates with the limits enforced by Torseau's town council and claims that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the same rentals also. But the problem is that the two towns might be not similar enough to support the analogical deduction. The arguer ignores the possibility that the climate in Balmer Island is worse than that in Torseau Island, which leads to more accidents. Or, maybe the road conditions in Torseau are better. Even, perhaps Torseau have far less population than Balmer so the former has less moped accidents after the limits. And so on. Without considering and ruling out such alternative explanations, the arguer cannot convince us this conclusion.

In addition, even if the arguer takes account of other possible reasons, it is hard to come to the conclusion either. The argument is unwarranted because of a hasty generalization. Limiting the number of mopeds rented may not reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. Possibly more people choose to purchase mopeds since the number of mopeds rented is limited. Besides, there is no evidence which can show that such limits on mopeds rentals can reduce pedestrian accidents.

Last but not at least, the arguer omits several other factors that might weaken the argument. The arguer commits a fallacy of a false dilemma. The methods to solve the problem are various, not just limits on mopeds rentals. For example, the town council of Balmer can add more traffic lights and signs on road. Or they can give more traffic education to the people who rend mopeds. Or they can provide new mopeds which are safer to the rental companies. Moreover, the limits on mopeds rentals in Torseau were effectual just in the last year, which is not representative enough to reveal that the limits are useful and helpful.

To sum up, the argument, while it seems logical at the first glance, has several flaws as discussed above. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to make a comprehensive comparison between the two towns. To better evaluate the argument, we should need more information about other possible aspects about moped accidents.