argument14 today is the day 第十一次作业 by tingtingjenny

tingtingjennyUID: 2431377

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

The owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center indicates that the Center should increase its profits by largely expanding the variety vegetable seeds the Center stocks in the coming spring. To support this recommendation, the owner also cites that a national survey got the conclusion that populace are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables sold in supermarket, and local news stand sold gardening magazine the best previously. However, the whole recommendation suffered form several logical flows that render it inconvincible as it stands.

To begin with, the owner's recommendation based on the presumption that the scant evidence of national survey can represent the local situation in suburban town. Perhaps the suburban town was actually famous in its supermarkets' fresh vegetables, and populaces are all satisfied with these vegetables locally. Or perhaps the local populaces are always buy their vegetables in free markets or private stores, the local supermarket indeed do not sold vegetables at all. Without prove that local vegetable selling situation are entirely the same as described nationally, the owner’s conclusion is unwarranted.

Secondly, the mere fact of the popularity of gardening magazine Great Gardens served little function to sustain the owner’s conclusion. If the gardening magazine Great Garden was the only magazine sold at News stand, the three months row could sustain nothing about the author's conclusion. And even though gardening magazine was sold in a row for it actually popularity, it is entirely possible that the magazine is attractive in its recommend some interesting gardening knowledge of flowers and plants instead of introduce knowledge about growing vegetables. Any of these scenarios took place would diminish the owner's recommendation.

Even assume the populaces in suburban town are also dissatisfied with vegetable in the supermarkets, and they read more about vegetable grown knowledge in the magazine, these are not necessarily indicate local populace would grow the vegetable themselves. Perhaps they would ask government to improve the vegetable quality in supermarket, or perhaps they eat more fruits to replace. With out provide evidence to eliminate these possibilities, the author could not justify the conclusion.

Moreover, to sustain the author's recommendation, the author must provide evidence that to increase profits by greatly expanding the Varity vegetable seeds the Gardening center stocked in the coming spring is feasible. It is entirely possible other gardening center already dominated local market and offered enough vegetable seeds. If this is the case, the Gardening center would earn no profits in the coming spring.

In sum, the owner’s conclusion is injustice, to render a better recommendation, the author have to prove the local suburban situation are the same as described in national survey, and the cause of magazine’s selling in row is that populace are willing to grow vegetable by themselves. to make a market survey in order to know the vegetable seeds consuming trends would be helpful in confirming the plans feasible in making profits.

[ 本帖最后由 tingtingjenny 于 2008-8-14 20:03 编辑 ]