Argument65 [FF小组]第二次作业---by wulfharth

wulfharthUID: 2460527

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 481          TIME: 01:15:55          DATE: 2008-11-5 17:44:54

The author of this memo recommends that to reduce expenditure by inventory limitation and to improve the profits the company should stop stocking most of their kinds of imported cheese and only sell the domestic cheeses. To support his recommendation, he also cite some data and a survey made by a magazine. But after carefully scrutiny, I find this argument is flawed in several respects.

Firstly, the author quotes that last year the five best-selling cheeses in their newest store were all domestic. But the author does not offer any data that the proportion of five best-selling cheeses, in all sales income. Perhaps the single best-selling cheese only accounts for ten percents or less, then the five best-selling cheeses just only accounts half of all sales income. Given that condition, reducing the imported cheeses would not save any money but lead to deficit. And even if we assume that the five best-selling cheeses account for more than half, even all, the recommendation also can not be convincible, because the last year might be a special year that ate domestic cheeses was popular, but the fashion could not last long. And the data the author cites is from the newest store; the reason of domestic cheeses sells good might be the customers who think the homemade cheeses as novelty, and it also can not last long. So without resolving these problems, the recommendation is suspected.

Then, the author cites a survey made by the Cheeses of the World magazine to support his conclusion. But the survey also can not prove anything. The survey's respondents are only the subscribers of the magazine, and the author does not provide and qualified number of the subscribers. As we all know, inadequate statistical sample can prove nothing. Only one or two hundred people can not represent the whole country, even a big city. Even if the numbers of respondents are available, the author's recommendation is also inconvincible. Perhaps the respondents' attitudes are not so serious, they might only take the survey optionally. Without excluding these possibilities, the recommendation is not reliable.

Even if we assume the survey and its respondents are all reliable, the conclusion is also incredible. The cheese store is chain store, that means the stores are distributed in different states or cities. Even if the author's recommendation can be useful in that newest store, it can not conclude that the recommendation would be useful in other stores or other states. Unless the author can testify that all stores and the cities they belong are overall the similar, his recommendation can not be admitted.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen it, the author needs to provide that the sales data would be sound and can be representative. And he also need to testify the survey he cites is effective and provide the evidences what can prove all stores are absolutely the same.

darlyxpUID: 2196136

原帖由 wulfharth 于 2008-11-5 18:02 发表

The author of this memo recommends that to reduce expenditure by inventory limitation and to improve the profits the company should stop stocking most of their kinds of imported cheese and only sell the domestic cheeses. To support his recommendation, he also cite some data and a survey made by a magazine. But after carefully scrutiny, I find this argument is flawed in several respects. [很人民日报式的开头(我没有讽刺的意思),我前两篇也这样写,但是发现这样的话很啰嗦,阅卷人对题目都已经万分熟悉了,在论坛里发现有许多前辈都提出过Argu应该怎么开头的问题,倒是值得思考.我发现,写这一段也要花费不少的时间,又起不到大的作用,据说这种开头阅卷人一般都不会看... 不过没有证据可以证明... 扯远了...]

Firstly, the author quotes that last year the five best-selling cheeses in their newest store were all domestic. But the author does not offer any data that the proportion of five best-selling cheeses, in all sales income. Perhaps the single best-selling cheese only accounts for ten percents or less, then the five best-selling cheeses just only accounts half of all sales income. Given that condition, reducing the imported cheeses would not save any money but lead to deficit. [个人觉得你这种推理倒是证明了作者的观点,既然仅仅5种domestic就已经占了总收入的50%,那么,加上作者没有列举出来的domestic的品种,那不是远远大于50%了? 这样的话,不就是应验了作者的观点吗?倒不像是反驳作者...] And even if we assume that the five best-selling cheeses account for more than half, even all, the recommendation also can not be convincible, because the last year might be a special year that ate domestic cheeses was popular, but the fashion could not last long. [貌似没有展开] And the data the author cites is from the newest store; the reason of domestic cheeses sells good [换成were sold well ?] might be the customers who think the homemade cheeses as novelty, and it also can not last long. So without resolving these problems, the recommendation is suspected.

Then, the author cites a survey made by the Cheeses of the World magazine to support his conclusion. But the survey also can not prove anything. The survey's respondents are only the subscribers of the magazine, and the author does not provide and qualified number of the subscribers. As we all know, inadequate statistical sample can prove nothing. Only one or two hundred people can not represent the whole country, even a big city. Even if the numbers of respondents are available, the author's recommendation is also inconvincible. Perhaps the respondents' attitudes are not so serious, they might only take the survey optionally. [这种可能有点像钻牛角尖... 另外,可以再加一个Perhaps such such...] Without excluding these possibilities, the recommendation is not reliable.

Even if we assume the survey and its respondents are all reliable, the conclusion is also incredible. The cheese store is chain store, that means the stores are distributed in different states or cities. Even if the author's recommendation can be useful in that newest store, it can not conclude that the recommendation would be useful in other stores or other states. Unless the author can testify that all stores and the cities they belong [可以删掉这俩词] are overall the similar, his recommendation can not be admitted.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen it, the author needs to provide that the sales data would be sound and can be representative. And he [ the arguer ?]also need to testify the survey he cites is effective and provide [shoule provide] the evidences what [which] can prove all stores are absolutely the same.

总结:
1.写得很好,比我好远了去了,鼓励一下! 语言也蛮流畅的!
2.有的地方再展开一点会更好
3.第二段反驳的时候貌似在帮作者证明其观点的正确性(个人感觉)
4.继续加油

[ 本帖最后由 darlyxp 于 2008-11-6 19:24 编辑 ]