argument65[FF小组]第二次作业---by darlyxp

darlyxpUID: 2196136

  信心巨受挫!!!

题目：ARGUMENT 65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States. "For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
字数：485          用时：1:11:40          日期：2008-11-5

After close scrutiny of the arguer's reasoning, I find that the recommendation is logically flawed in several respects.

First of all, the recommendation rests on an unconvincing assumption that domestic cheeses can be have a good sale condition in all stores all over the country. But the arguer provides no evidence that all kinds of domestic cheeses are popular in all cheese stores. The sale condition in the newest store cannot representative of all other stores’ condition. It is possible that the newest store just located in Wisconsin, and the cheddar cheeses are only in line with local people’s tastes but not with other state's individuals. Moreover, the good sale's condition in the newest store is no indication that any profits are improved. It is entirely possible that this store is adopting the measure of lowering price greatly to increase the sale. In addition, the arguer never mentions that the needs of imported cheeses are decreasing. It is entirely possible that a series of imported cheeses are still popular in all stores. Thus, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibilities.

Furthermore, the statistical reliability of the recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine is really dubious for the reason that the speaker provides no evidence which can show that the number of the respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of all the subscribers. It is possible that the surveyors only do survey the persons who are in favor of domestic cheeses but not survey the individuals who like imported cheese much. It is also possible that the persons who like imported cheeses do not in response to the survey in time. In these cases, this survey lends no support to the arguer to draw the conclusion that the preference for imported cheeses is decreasing. To better support the recommendation, the arguer should provide more details of the survey to show that the respondents of the survey are statistically significant and representative.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the domestic cheeses are sold well in some stores, it does not follow that to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and to sell primarily domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits in all of our stores. Because the arguer fails to take into account the possible differences among the stores. It is likely that lowering the cost of sales is the best way to improve profits in some stores, while adding the varieties of products is the best way in some other stores. Thus, without considering and ruling out other ways contributed to the improvement of profits, the credibility of the arguer’s conclusion is really open to doubt.

In sum, the recommendation is not well-reasoned. To strengthen this recommendation, the arguer must provide evidence that the preference for domestic cheeses is indeed increasing in all stores while of imported cheeses is truly decreasing. To better support the recommendation, we would also need more details of the survey cited by the arguer.

看着自己写的这些东西都恶心! 大家想怎么批就怎么批吧!

[ 本帖最后由 darlyxp 于 2008-11-5 23:48 编辑 ]

oyhdUID: 2490181

因为是Ａ所以语言就不改了．
楼主的摸板已经可以比较灵活的应用了，但攻击点的选择上我不倾向于攻击ＳＵＲＶＥＲＹ的可靠性，攻击ＳＵＲＶＥＲＹ可以攻击它和结论的相关性．一般ＳＵＲＶＥＲＹ不能直接证明结论，你就可以攻击它．
关于利润问题，可以讨论深入一点，分析成本和收益才能最终得到利润．成本低，但价钱更低的产品是没有利润的．
各个分论点可以通过些过度词让文章更有整体感，不只是单独的罗列．
终的来说这篇Ａ还是满好的，为啥会这么悲观呢？