argument14【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第三次模考

duyuan3377UID: 2415765

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 447          TIME: 00:29:57          DATE: 2008-12-8 11:13:23

In the argument, the arguer recommends that we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetables seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring. The argument is based on a national survey showing that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets. To support the argument, the arguer points out that the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out quickly. Although the recommendation sounds reasonable at first thought, a series of logical flaws may seriously undermine the argument.

The threshold problem is that whether the national survey is suitable for the suburban town Green Thumb Gardening serves is questionable. The arguer unfairly assumes that the nationwide survey can apply to the suburban town. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the arguer provide any evidence to substantiate the assumption.  Perhaps in the suburban town, there might be few supermarkets at all. Even though the national survey is applicable to the suburban town, it still problematic to assume that dissatisfaction is sure to lead people to grow vegetables by themselves.  It is entirely possible that people are only dissatisfied with the vegetables in supermarkets and that people can buy vegetables in other places. Relying on week evidence, the arguer cannon convince me to accept his recommendation.

Moreover, the great sale of the gardening magazine aslo cannot prove that people are sure to grow vegetables by themselves. The arguer groundlessly assumes that those who buy the gardening magazine are probable to learn to grow vegetables by themselves. However, he fails to provide no evidence to support his assumption. It is highly possible that those who buy the gardening magazine are just for fun. Or perhaps, the gardening magazine might not tell any information about growing vegetables. Without considering and ruling out these possible factors, the arguer fails to make a firm recommendation.

Even if people want to grow vegetables by themselves, there is no guarantee that greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds is an effective method to increase our profits. After all, the profit is the function of both cose and revenue. Maybe the method leads to large cost for the Gardening Center. Without the further information about the supply, demand, cost of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds, the arguer cannot draw a reliable conclusion.

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to the recommendation. To solidify the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evident to sopport the assumption that people are willing to growing vegetables by themselves and to prove that the method mentioned above is effective.