argument65【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第四次模考

duyuan3377UID: 2415765

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 418          TIME: 00:29:13          DATE: 2008-12-9 12:46:58

In the argument, the arguer draws a conclusion that the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To solidify the argument, the arguer points out that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheeses. The argument is also based on a survey conducted by a magazine. Although the argument sounds quite reasonable at first thought, several logical flaws may seriously undermine the argument.

First of all, the arguer unfairly assumes that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store accounts for large part of our whole sales amount. Firstly, the arguer fails to tell us how many the five best-selling cheeses are and what percentage they account for the whole sales amount. It is entirely possible that they only a small part. Secondly, this situation only happened in our newest stores. What about other stores? Maybe newest stores also are a small part in all stores. Without better evidence that the report makes sense, the arguer cannot any firm conclusion on the basis of it.

In addition, the recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine is questionable. The arguer may assumes that the subscribers of the magazine is exactly the customers of the chain of cheese stores. But there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor the arguer does provide any evidence to substantiate the assumption. So the arguer cannot convince me to accept his argument.

Last but ont least, even if the assumption that domestic cheeses are really is the majority of our whole sales amount, whether the method is effective to improve profits is still unreliable. As we all know, the profit is a function of cost and revenue, and affected by many other factors. Whether stocking imported chesses costs a lot?  Whether few buyers must lead to few profit, maybe the price of imported cheeses are much higher and as a result we can get considerate profits from them. Without considering and ruling out other factors which influence on the profits, it is logically unsounded to draw any conclusion.

To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To the strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide better evidence that domestic cheeses really account for most part of market and more information regarding the market supply and demand of domestic cheeses.