读eco&time--6.9--joyce

joyceww88UID: 2599492

Global health
An unwelcome Mexican wave
Apr 28th 2009 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com The World Health Organisation raises its alert level in response to the spread of swine influenza

THE football stadiums and cathedrals in Mexico City were empty this weekend for the first time in living memory. But these are not ordinary times for the nearly 20m chilangos who live in this sprawling metropolis. Mexican officials shut down all schools, banned large public gatherings and otherwise discouraged human interaction in order to control an emerging global viral scourge that by Tuesday April 28th had claimed perhaps 152 lives. As the threat spread to other parts of the world, officials at the World Health Organisation (WHO) and at America’s Centres for Disease Control (CDC) declared public-health emergencies.

The culprit is an unusual new virus known as A/H1N1, which is a form of swine flu that has made its way from pigs into humans. Mexican officials began to notice in late March that an unusually high number of patients were suffering from pneumonia（肺病） and other respiratory illnesses. After preliminary investigations, it was concluded this month that the cause is not seasonal influenza but rather an entirely new hybrid strain composed of pig, bird and human viruses.

They raised the alarm after being flooded with cases that, at least on the surface, appear to be connected with this virus. Over 1,500 Mexicans have been afflicted with symptoms that may be the result of this new virus. But it is not confirmed whether the root cause of most of these cases was A/H1N1 or commonplace strains of influenza. With help from WHO experts, local laboratories are furiously testing genetic samples to verify how many did indeed fall victim to this new virus.

Despite Mexican efforts at containment, five American states—California, Texas, Kansas, Ohio and New York—have confirmed mild cases of A/H1N1. At least 50 people have been reported as infected in the United States. Cases have also been reported in Spain, Britain, Israel, New Zealand and Canada. Canada was badly affected by the deadly SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak a few years ago.

In response, many countries are becoming more vigilant and increasing stocks of antiviral medicines. Some are making noises about（高声谈论，抱怨） banning North American pork, despite assurances from the WHO that eating cooked pork does not transmit swine flu. China and Russia are moving to quarantine visitors with suspicious symptoms. Asian airports have turned on their heat-sensing equipment to detect sick incoming passengers (kit that they had installed after earlier scares resulting from outbreaks of avian（鸟的，鸟类的） flu and SARS). On Monday the WHO raised its pandemic threat warning level by a notch（等级，水平）, from 3 to 4 (on a scale of 6), saying that the flu is being spread by human-to-human transmission. It did not recommend the imposition（强加） of travel restrictions, suggesting that it is too late to prevent the spread of the virus. Some governments, including those of Britain and the United States, are discouraging non-essential trips to Mexico.

It is too early to be sure that A/H1N1 is a dangerous pandemic in the making. Until all of the Mexican cases are properly examined, authorities cannot know whether patients suffering from flu-like symptoms actually got this new bug or merely some older, less worrisome one. Without that information, it is also impossible to determine the new disease’s virulence, fatality rates and so on. Officials are likely to make such determinations in coming days, but until then how worried should the globally mobile punter（下赌注者） be?

There is both bad news and good news. Unlike typical flus, which usually hit the old and weak, the young and healthy appear to be falling victim to this new disease. Because most people do not have regular contact with pigs, much of the world’s population may lack immunity against swine flu. Those two factors suggest a pandemic, if it happens, may spread easily. There is no vaccine to prevent the spread of A/H1N1, and even if officials were to start work on one today it would take months to produce—by which time the virus may well have mutated.

On the positive side this virus is, at least for now, responding to common antiviral treatments such as Tamiflu. The WHO has an emergency stockpile of 5m or so antiviral drugs, which it plans to make available for the hardest-hit countries. The United States has 50m treatments in its stockpile, and officials have just authorised the domestic release of a quarter of that hoard. Other countries also have their own stocks on hand.

Also encouraging is that all of the cases confirmed outside Mexico seem to be mild ones. Most of the suspected deaths in Mexico appear to be the result of patients waiting until they were very sick before going to hospital. That suggests even if this virus becomes a pandemic, it need not be a deadly one—early intervention may well quash the bug. That points to the most important reason for cheer, even in the midst（中部，中间） of uncertainty.

The world is much better prepared today to handle a pandemic than it was just a few years ago. Thanks to the painful lessons learned by Hong Kong, Toronto and other global centres hit by earlier outbreaks, many countries now have emergency protocols in place and are more wary. Also the WHO’s members have agreed on a sensible set of protocols for pandemic preparedness, sharing of genetic samples and other ways of co-ordinating a global response. Thus far, the new system seem to be working well—but it will take some time to know whether it is good enough to cope with A/H1N1.

joyceww88UID: 2599492

General Motors
GM’s latest remodelApr 28th 2009
From Economist.com
General Motors has a last attempt at restructuring outside of bankruptcy

IN DECEMBER, when GM secured a large slice of government bail-out funds to keep it alive, the giant car company was jokingly dubbed（复制） Government Motors. The company’s latest—and most sweeping（凶猛的，广泛的）—restructuring plan, announced on Monday April 27th, could make the joke a grim reality. GM had until the end of May to present proposals to persuade America’s government to release billions more of taxpayers' dollars to keep it from the bankruptcy court. GM believes it has done the job already with a plan that gives the government a 50% stake in the firm. Now the important deadline is May 26th, by when the company’s creditors are supposed to agree to a deal which treats them far less generously（宽大的）.

The latest plan, devised in close consultation with the Obama administration’s car-industry task force, is a last-ditch（最后防线，绝境） effort to get GM into competitive shape. The firm announced that another 21,000 jobs will be lost in America next year, bringing the workforce（劳动力） down to around 40,000. The Pontiac brand will go and the production of Saturn models will disappear at the end of this year, somewhat earlier than had been proposed. GM also aims to shut several factories and will reduce its dealership（代理权，经销权） network from some 6,200 to 3,600 (a bigger cut than previously planned).

GM suggests that these measures would save about $7 billion a year. The company also has proposals to reduce debts. It is seeking another $11.6 billion from America’s government in addition to the $15.4 billion it has already received; in exchange for half of that debt, the government would receive a 50% stake in GM. The United Auto Workers, GM's main union, would get a 39% stake. That would be in lieu of（代替） half of the $20 billion that it owes to an independent trust, controlled by the UAW, that is supposed to provide healthcare as part of a previous deal to shed liabilities.

Despite protestations from the White House that the government had no desire to own or run a big car company, the politicians may have little choice but to get involved, if the deal goes through in its present form. The alternative might be to cede control to the UAW, the second-biggest shareholder（股东）, which is hardly blameless for GM’s current parlous state. Rumours also abound that a similar deal to avoid bankruptcy at Chrysler would see the UAW take a 55% stake in America’s third-largest homegrown car company. If so, it is unclear whether further concession from unions, if they are needed at the two carmakers, would be easier or harder to extract.

Standing in the way of restructuring outside of the bankruptcy courts are GM’s aggrieved bondholders. GM wants holders of just over $27 billion in unsecured debt to swap(交换) it for a mere 10% of shares in the company. If debts cannot be cut by 90% then GM will file for（申请，诉诸法律） Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Bondholders smell an unsavoury deal cooked up between the UAW and Barack Obama, who had the union's support in last year’s election. Early signs suggest that the bondholders may conclude that they will do better to hope for a bigger pay-out in bankruptcy rather than agree to a deal on these terms.

It may be that by announcing the proposals early GM has left time for renegotiation with the bondholders. But the ferocity of their initial disapproval suggests that small sweeteners will not persuade creditors to change their minds. Bondholders face the prospect of a small stake in a clapped out car company run by a union-friendly government with a zeal for（热心） green cars that may not have much of a market. With that as an alternative, a gamble in a bankruptcy court may seem quite appealing.


PS:谢谢15楼同学，居然有人看呵呵

joyceww88UID: 2599492

The Supreme Court
Change at the topMay 1st 2009
From Economist.com
The retirement of Justice David Souter will let Barack Obama begin to shape the Supreme Court


WHEN the Supreme Court ends its October term, Justice David Souter, according to those who are privy（个人的，有利害关系的人） to his plans, （很绕啊，这句没看懂额）is going to retire. He is neither particularly old (69) nor ill, but simply yearns to get back to New Hampshire, from where the first President George Bush plucked him in 1990 to be one of the nine justices of the country's highest court. Although he has enjoyed the job, he has always hated the months he has to spend in Washington, calling it “the world's worst city” and resolutely avoiding the social round. He was only the sixth unmarried justice of the court, and one of the most private of all.

His departure（离开） is still some way off（有很大距离）, but the prospect will unleash a flood of excitement and speculation. It gives President Barack Obama his first chance to influence America's top court, and Mr Obama's choice will clearly indicate whether he sees himself as a firmly liberal president, or whether he means to（对···来说很重要） resurrect the promises of bipartisanship he made in the campaign and then, swiftly, seemed to forget again.

Chances to appoint justices to America's Supreme Court come up only rarely. Most presidents can hope to name only one or two candidates to it. And that is considered just as well（幸好，无妨）. The court is the last arbiter on all the country's laws, and the ultimate interpreter of the constitution. Its rulings have shaped America far more decisively than the work of Congress. And justices are appointed for life, making them potentially figures more powerful than the president himself. The right sort of pick may prolong a president's influence long after his return to normal life.

Mr Obama will therefore be drawing up（草拟） a list of replacements with some eagerness. He is said to want to nominate a woman: since the retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor, a notable swing vote on the court, only Ruth Bader Ginsburg remains, and she has been battling cancer. Names in the wind（正在进行，将要发生） include Jennifer Granholm, the governor of Michigan, and Elena Kagan, the solicitor-general（副检察长）. But many men are also interested, and Bill Clinton, the former president, is sometimes said to be among them.

Any president hoping to influence the court should know, however, that there is no magic formula. Once they don（穿上，披上） the black gown, justices owe no allegiance to anyone. Justice Souter's own career illustrates the point. He was picked as a conservative, and for the first few years acted like one, agreeing most of the time with the court's most truculent and passionate right-winger(右翼分子)， Antonin Scalia. But in 1992 Justice Souter ruled that the abortion law, Roe v Wade—the bane of conservatives, and the rock on which many Supreme Court nominations have foundered—should not be overturned because to do so without “compelling reason to re-examine” would be “a surrender to political pressure”. In that year, too, he voted against allowing prayer at a graduation ceremony. And in 2000, in Bush v Gore, he voted to allow the election recount（重新计算选票） to continue while the majority ruled that it should end, and that George Bush should be president. Justice Souter was so disgusted by that ruling, and the partisanship（党派性，党派偏见） it seemed to show, that he almost resigned.

He is now considered a liberal on the court, and Mr Obama will not therefore alter the court's balance by picking a liberal to replace him. But, as with the sudden defection（脱党，背叛，变节） of Senator Arlen Specter this week, it is another unexpected gift to the new president. Justice Souter could well have outserved him. As it is, several other justices look more frail, and Mr Obama may well find himself in a position to pick two or three. With each one, the chances of reconstructing the court in his image, although still not dependable, get better.

joyceww88UID: 2599492

Deflation in America
The greater of two evilsMay 7th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Inflation is bad, but deflation is worse

MERLE HAZARD, an unusually satirical country and western crooner, has captured monetary confusion better than anyone else. “Inflation or deflation,” he warbles, “tell me if you can: will we become Zimbabwe or will we be Japan?”

How do you guard against both the deflationary forces of America’s worst recession since the 1930s and the vigorous response of the Federal Reserve, which has in effect（事实上） cut interest rates to zero and rapidly expanded its balance-sheet? On May 4th Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate（荣誉获得者） in economics, gave warning that Japan-style deflation loomed, even as Allan Meltzer, an eminent Fed historian, foresaw a repeat of 1970s inflation—both on the same page of the New York Times.
There is something to both fears. But inflation is distant and containable, while deflation is at hand and pernicious.
Dragged down by debtFears about deflation do not rest on the 0.4% decline in American consumer prices in the year to March. Although this is the first such annual decline since 1955, it is the transitory result of a plunge in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation is 1.8%. Rather, the worry is of persistent price declines that characterise true deflation. With unemployment nearing 9%, economic output is further below the economy’s potential than at any time since 1982. This gap is likely to widen. House prices are not part of America’s inflation index but their decline is forcing households to reduce debt (see article), which could subdue economic growth for years. As workers compete for scarce jobs and firms underbid each other for sales, wages and prices will come under pressure.

So far, expectations of inflation remain stable: that sentiment is itself a welcome bulwark（壁垒） against deflation. But pay freezes and wage cuts may soon change people’s minds. In one poll, more than a third of respondents said they or someone in their household had suffered a cut in pay or hours. The employment-cost index rose by just 2.1% in the year to the first quarter, the least since records began in 1982. In 2003, during the last deflation scare, total pay grew by almost 4%.

Does this matter? If prices are falling because of advancing productivity, as at the end of the 19th century, it is a sign of progress, not economic collapse. Today, though, deflation is more likely to resemble the malign 1930s sort than that earlier benign variety, because demand is weak and households and firms are burdened by debt. In deflation the nominal value of debts remains fixed even as nominal wages, prices and profits fall. Real debt burdens therefore rise, causing borrowers to cut spending to service their debts or to default. That undermines the financial system and deepens the recession.

From 1929 to 1933 prices fell by 27%. This time central banks are on the case(执勤，正在解决). In America, Britain, Japan and Switzerland they have pushed short-term interest rates to, or close to, zero and vastly expanded their balance-sheets by buying debt. It helps, too, that the world has abandoned the monetary straitjacket of the gold standard it wore in the 1930s.

Yet this anti-deflationary zeal is precisely what alarms people like Mr Meltzer. He worries that the price of seeing off deflation is that the Fed will be unable or unwilling to reverse itself in time to prevent a resurgence of inflation.

Fair enough, but inflation is easier to put right than deflation. A central bank can raise interest rates as high as it wants to suppress inflation, but it cannot cut nominal rates below zero. Deflation robs a central bank of its ability to stimulate spending using negative real interest rates. In the worst case, rising debts and defaults depress growth, poisoning the economy by deepening deflation and pressing real interest rates higher. Central banks that have lowered rates to nearly zero are now using unconventional, quantitative tools, but their efficacy is unproven. Given the choice, erring on the side of inflation would be less catastrophic than erring on the side of deflation.

That said, there is a legitimate concern that when the time comes to raise interest rates, the Fed may hold back because of political pressure or fear of fracturing financial markets. The Fed was too slow to raise interest rates after its deflation scare in 2003. Yet that is best addressed by strengthening the Fed. Barack Obama should nominate credible, independent people to the two vacant seats on the Federal Reserve Board, and bat away suggestions that the 12 reserve-bank presidents, who are not confirmed by Congress, lose their say in monetary policy. Congress should let the Fed issue its own debt, which would give it scope to tighten monetary policy without disorderly sales of the illiquid private debt it has taken on.

Affirming the Fed’s political independence and equipping it with better tools would help the central bank combat inflation when the time comes. It would also lessen the risk that it tightens prematurely just to demonstrate its resolve.

whjituoUID: 2577317

楼主，我真是不忍心回帖来打断你的文章，但是我对你的崇拜有如滔滔江水连绵不绝呀，真是太感谢啦！！

joyceww88UID: 2599492

The euro-area economy
Into a deep holeMay 15th 2009
From Economist.com
The euro-area economy is slumping faster than most had feared

THE euro area is falling into such a deep hole that the recovery, when it eventually comes, will be a long, hard journey. Figures released on Friday May 15th showed that GDP in the 16-country currency zone fell by 2.5% in the first quarter, an annualised rate of some 10%, far worse than many analysts had feared. Germany, the largest economy in the group, fell even harder: its GDP shrank by 3.8% in the three months to March and has plunged by almost 7% since its recession began a year ago. Italy’s GDP fell by 2.4% in the quarter; Spain’s by 1.8%. The 1.2% fall in France, large by any normal standards, almost counts as a boom.

The figures confirmed that the euro zone has been hit far harder by the global downturn than its rich-world peers (and largest export markets) in America and Britain. When spending in these countries dried up（用光，耗尽）, because of scarce credit, they exported some of the pain to their suppliers. For that reason Germany has so far paid a higher price for its reliance on exports than the Anglo-Saxon countries have borne for their dependence on credit and rising house prices. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, export-led manufacturers have been hit hardest. For example Slovakia, the euro zone’s newest member (it joined in January), saw its GDP crash by 11.2% in the first quarter. Its economy leans heavily on carmaking and its loss has been far more severe even than in Germany.

One of the ironies of this downturn is that it was caused by global housing and credit busts, and yet the economies that have suffered most, such as Germany and Japan, sat out（不参加，袖手旁观） the credit boom. Even in Europe some sinners have faired better than saints, in GDP terms at least. As painful as Spain’s construction bust is, in terms of lost jobs and evaporating tax revenues, its economy has contracted less and more slowly than Germany’s.

Despite the carnage in continental Europe, the sense of crisis among the population is not yet as great as in America or Britain. That is because of another irony: Europe’s inflexible labour markets may hamper jobs growth, but they also work against rapid lay-offs in recession. The unemployment rate in Germany has scarcely budged in the past year. The bad news on euro-zone jobs has mostly been in Ireland and Spain, where jobless rates have roughly doubled in a year. Ireland is one of Europe’s most flexible economies. Spain has its rigidities, but at the peak of the boom as many as a third of its workers were on fixed-term contracts. Those jobs can be shed quickly and easily. In both countries, jobs are disappearing fast in the construction industry, because of collapsing house-building.

Things will not get much better soon. Business-activity indicators across the euro-zone are starting to pick up from record lows. That points not to a revival but rather to a slower rate of GDP decline in the present quarter (it could scarcely get worse). A meaningful recovery is a long way off. Firms cannot take losses forever without shedding jobs. Unemployment in Germany and elsewhere will begin to pick up quickly this year and carry on in 2010. Even where cutting jobs is costly, it is unavoidable given the scale of the fall in GDP. The European Central Bank seems to have hunkered down（倒下，沉替待发） for a long recession. It is now prepared to offer banks unlimited loans for 1% for up to 12 months, and that horizon may even be extended. When you have fallen so far, it is a long way back out.

joyceww88UID: 2599492

The world economy
Drowning, not waving?May 29th 2009
From Economist.com
Don't get too excited about some recent brighter economic news
IT HAS been a cheerful couple of days for those starved of bright economic news. Hopeful statistics have been trickling in from many parts of the world. On Friday May 29th revised first quarter GDP figures for America showed that the economy there had contracted slightly less than had earlier been reported. In addition durable-goods orders in the country rose by the most in 16 months. In Japan, factory output rose by 5.2% in April, the biggest monthly increase, in percentage terms, in over half a century. And in the first quarter India’s economy grew by a bullish（抱有信心的，乐观的） 5.8%, compared with a year before, while South Korea’s industrial production continued to rise in April.

Even in gloomy Europe there are encouraging signs. Poland’s GDP ticked up（提升） by 0.8% in the first quarter, as did German private consumption (in the same period) and retail sales also grew, by 0.5%, in April. British consumer confidence remained steady in April, and house prices there rose both in March and May, according to one index.

For optimists, these are all signs that might point towards the beginning of the end of the “Great Recession”. Headline writers, and those who are urging stockmarkets to continue rising, will continue to talk of hopes of recovery. Yet a closer look at the detail of the latest figures suggests that hope springs eternal and will latch on to what it can—even when a more sober analysis would suggest there is a long way to go before recovery sets in.

Optimists make much of statistics that beat analysts’ expectations. But when a particular figure outdoes（胜过） predictions it may be because those expectations were overly pessimistic, rather than a sign that something fundamental has changed for the better.

What, for instance, is the right reference point（参考点，控制点） on the latest news on India's economy? Doomsters（末日论者） might fret that it has grown at the slowest quarterly pace in several years. Cheerleaders could rejoice that it has expanded slightly faster than most people had expected. Weary of negative news, the latter explanation is a tempting way to make sense of the numbers, but the gloomy view is equally valid.

Consider, too, the figures for consumer confidence in Britain. Although consumer gloom seems to have abated, the reported level of –27 is remarkably low by historical standards. If one takes into account（重视，考虑） reports that British consumers had been growing a bit more confident in recent months, the latest statistic could suggest a halt to a small rally, which is hardly something to cheer. This example highlights the difficulty of extrapolating from a single month or quarter of data, which can easily be skewed by one-off（一次性的） events such as a national holiday or sudden desperate measures by retailers to offload stock. Discerning whether a more sustained recovery might be under way takes, unsurprisingly, more data.

Thus pessimists, who are unconvinced that the worst is over for the world economy, have much to reinforce their dark mood. One particular concern is that the financial and credit problems at the root of the global recession have not been dealt with satisfactorily. Keiichiro Kobayashi, a Japanese economist, has looked back to Japan’s experience in the late 1990s and argues that unless the banks are fixed, a strong recovery for the world economy is impossible. Some disagree, suggesting that economic output can bounce back even before credit and financial markets are again healthy, if consumers get their wallets open. But even if this argument is compelling in some historical cases, this time it seems that household spending in many economies will remain weak because of high levels of debt.

One man who has made his name in recent years as a doom-monger, Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University, recently suggested that recovery from recession was far from imminent, arguing that “it's going to last another six to nine months”. It might not be surprising that he avoids a bullish prediction, but Mr Roubini goes one step further, noting that other economists are still suggesting a “doomsday” scenario, with continuing contraction for a long time to come, and thus even he could be considered as an optimist.

joyceww88UID: 2599492

Global house prices
Bottom fishingJun 4th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Lower prices are tempting bargain-hunters back into the most depressed markets

FEARS of a general deflation may be receding but in the rich world’s housing markets at least, falling prices are still the norm. Property(资产，财产；性质) values are slumping in almost all of the 19 countries in our latest global survey (see table). The trend is most persistent in America, where prices in the first quarter were 19.1% lower than a year before, according to the national index published by S&P/Case-Shiller. That is the biggest drop since the series began in 1987.

The index from FHFA, the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America’s government-backed mortgage giants, shows a far gentler decline in prices. But that measure does not cover properties that have been financed by subprime loans (where prices are weighed down by fire sales) or deals above the price cap for regulated mortgages, a rarefied（稀薄的） bit of the market where buyers are now scarce.

Prices may be falling but buyers are at least returning to the worst-hit markets, tempted by cheaper homes and lower mortgage rates. In America, home sales that had been agreed but not yet completed jumped by 6.7% in April, the third successive monthly rise, according to the National Association of Realtors. The number of completed deals rose by 2.9% that month. Almost half of these were “distressed” sales—ie, by borrowers with overdue loan payments, or of homes repossessed by lenders.

As in America, home prices in Britain have fallen a long way from their peak. Here lower prices have also tempted bargain-hunters back into the market. New buyer inquiries at estate agents rose in each of the six months to April, according to RICS, an industry group. Prices unexpectedly increased by 2.6% in May, according to Halifax, a mortgage lender. Loans are a bit easier to come by for prospective homebuyers.

As with the broader economy, these renewed signs of life in two of the world’s most depressed housing markets do not yet suggest a strong revival. In Britain, for instance, the number of agreed home loans, while above its recent lows, is still around half that associated in the past with rising house prices. Even where there are ready buyers, still-troubled banks may not be willing or able to finance all of them. The ratio of house prices to workers’ pay is still some way above its long-run average, so property in Britain could not yet be described as cheap. And house prices are unlikely to perk up（活跃起来） for long if unemployment continues to rise, as it is likely to do over the coming months.

Job losses stand in the way of housing recovery in America too. Deprived of regular income, many homeowners are falling behind（逾期付款） with their mortgage payments. A record 9.1% of borrowers had missed at least one payment by the first quarter of this year. A further 3.9% were in foreclosure, the legal process that settles defaults and thereby adds to the glut of homes for sale. At April’s rate of sales, it would take ten months to shift the stock of unsold homes. In 2006, when markets were far perkier, that sales-to-stocks ratio was just 6.5 months.

Britain at least does not have such an inventory problem, because its rigid planning laws prevented a house-building boom. Elsewhere in Europe, construction bubbles have left a surplus of empty houses for sale. Big supply gluts in Ireland and Spain are likely to push down house prices there for some time to come.