Argument45 =So What=小组第2次作业 by 灿烂千阳灿烂

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

提纲：
1.        来自猎人的报告是否准确
2.        可能因为全球变暖，冰层是变薄了但没有薄到不能移动，鹿可能迁徙到别的气候更适宜的地方，往北迁徙等，导致当地的鹿减少，其实总的数量并没有下降。
3.        其他原因，维持生长所需的植物被砍伐了，栖居地被占据做别的用了，猎人打猎等。

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

Words: 483          date: 2009-5-31            start: 10：10             end:11:40
In this argument, the author believes that the recent global warming trends contribute to the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. He also claims that this decilne attributes to deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To bolster his assertion, he quotes the reports from the local hunters that the quantity of the arctic deer is reducing. Also, he connects the recent global warming trends with the failure that the arctic deers search for food. These evidences appear to be reasonable, while they can hardly enable the certain conclusion.

Firstly, the reliability of the reports from the local hunters is open to doubt in that hunters support their families and themselves on hunting these wild animals. Once the quantity of the deer decreases, the government and the related organizations owe the obligation to provide more assistance to those hunters. Moreover, lack of scientific knowledges, the local hunters probably fail to capture the latest trends of the habitation about those arctic deers, thus predicating the decline mistakenly. Consequently, the author should cite a report or survey which is conducted by an accredited and scientific institution to convince us that the quantity of the arctic deer is really reducing.

The second problem is the underlying assumption that the recent global warming trend is responsible for the decline of the arctic deer. The author only points out that the two events occur during the same period. However, we all know that a coincidence of the two phenomena could not sufficiently demonstrate a causal relationship between them. We  concede that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt so probably they turn to be thinner. But it is entirely likely that they are still thick enough for the arctic deer to move and search for food. Even if the arctic deer find it impossible to inhabit on islands in Canada's arctic region, they could migrate to other regions affected slightly by the global warming. According to this, the quantity of the arctic deer actually remains constant.

In addition, many other factors could also lead to the result which might include the disappearance of the plants the arctic deer feeds on as a result of the global warming or being lopped by human beings, the occupation of the local habitate yielding to the benefits of the local farming, the increasing excessive cynegetics by local hunters and so forth. Without ruling out such factors, we could not be convinced that the recent global warming trend is the actural cause of the decline of the arctic deer.

To sum up, the argument by the author is unconvicing. To strengthen it, the author must provide a report by an accreditted and scientific institution to convince us the assertion of the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. Also, the author must rule out all other possible alternatives for the only reason causing this result.

miki7catUID: 2533330

In this argument, the author believes that the recent global warming trends contribute to the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. He also claims that this [decilne](decline) attributes to deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To bolster his assertion, he quotes the reports from the local hunters that the quantity of the arctic deer is reducing. Also, he connects the recent global warming trends with the failure that the arctic [deers](deer单复同形) search for food. These evidences appear to be reasonable, while they can hardly enable the certain conclusion.

Firstly, the reliability of the reports from the local hunters is open to doubt in that hunters support their families and themselves on hunting these wild animals. Once the quantity of the deer decreases, the government and the related organizations owe the obligation to provide more assistance to those hunters. Moreover, lack of scientific knowledges, the local hunters probably fail to capture the latest trends of the habitation about those arctic [deers](deer), thus predicating the decline mistakenly. Consequently, the author should cite a report or survey which is conducted by an accredited and scientific institution to convince us that the quantity of the arctic deer is really reducing.（很好的总结，学习）

The second problem is the underlying assumption that the recent global warming trend is responsible for the decline of the arctic deer. The author only points out that the two events occur during the same period. However, we all know that a coincidence of the two phenomena could not sufficiently demonstrate a causal relationship between them. We concede that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt so probably they turn to be thinner. But it is entirely likely that they are still thick enough for the arctic deer to move and search for food. Even if the arctic deer find it impossible to inhabit on islands in Canada's arctic region, they could migrate to other regions affected slightly by the global warming. According to this, the quantity of the arctic deer actually remains constant.

In addition, many other factors could also lead to the result which might include the disappearance of the plants the arctic deer feeds on as a result of the global warming or being lopped by human beings, the occupation of the local habitate yielding to the benefits of the local farming, the increasing excessive cynegetics by local hunters and so forth. Without ruling out such factors, we could not be convinced that the recent global warming trend is the [actural](actual)cause of the decline of the arctic deer.

To sum up, the argument by the author is [unconvicing](unconvincing). To strengthen it, the author must provide a report by an [accreditted](accredited) and scientific institution to convince us the assertion of the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. Also, the author must rule out all other possible alternatives for the only reason causing this result.

看得出小灿语言功力很强，而且整篇文章思路清晰表达完整。

sha-shineUID: 2610662

In this argument, the author believes that the recent（recently） global warming trends contribute to the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. He also claims that this decline attributes to deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To bolster his assertion, he quotes the reports from the local hunters that the quantity of the arctic deer is reducing. Also, he connects the recent global warming trends with the failure that the arctic deers search for food. These evidences appear to be reasonable, while they can hardly enable the certain conclusion.
（我认为，首段可按这个顺序和大致内容写：“作者根据当地猎人的报告北极鹿的数量正在下降，又根据另一个报告推出：北极鹿的下降时他们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。可是我并不这么认为…”
因为这些内容刚好是你下文所要驳斥的，而且也是按你驳斥的顺序写。这样容易让判卷人认为你的文章很有条理）


Firstly, the reliability of the reports from the local hunters is open to doubt in that hunters support their families and themselves on hunting these wild animals. Once the quantity of the deer decreases, the government and the related organizations owe the obligation to provide more assistance to those hunters. Moreover, lack of scientific knowledges（不用复数）, the local hunters probably fail to capture the latest trends of the habitation about those arctic deers, thus predicating the decline mistakenly. Consequently, the author should cite a report or survey which is conducted by an accredited and scientific institution to convince us that the quantity of the arctic deer is really reducing.

The second problem is the underlying assumption that the recent global warming trend is responsible for the decline of the arctic deer. The author only points out that the two events occur during the same period. However, we all know that a coincidence of the two phenomena could not sufficiently demonstrate a causal relationship between them. We  concede that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt so probably they turn to be thinner. But it is entirely likely that they are still thick enough for the arctic deer to move and search for food. Even if the arctic deer find it impossible to inhabit on islands in Canada's arctic region, they could migrate to other regions which affected slightly by the global warming. According to this, the quantity of the arctic deer actually remains constant.

In addition, many other factors could also lead to the result which might include the disappearance of the plants the arctic deer feeds on as a result of the global warming or being lopped by human beings, the occupation of the local habitate （habitat）yielding to the benefits of the local farming, the increasing cynegetics by local hunters and so forth. Without ruling out such factors, we could not be convinced that the recent global warming trend is the actural cause of the decline of the arctic deer.

To sum up, the argument by the author is unconvincing. To strengthen it, the author must provide a report by an accreditted （accredited）and scientific institution to convince us the assertion of the decline of the quantity of the arctic deer. Also, the author must rule out all other possible alternatives for the only reason causing this result.
（正体结构紧密，如果第一段再加强点就更加完美了）
（我有一个问题，如果在一个A中，我想阐述的几方面中，有两方面想驳斥的内容有交叉改怎么取舍。例如，你这里的第二段，如果在这里说“当地居民的话没有可信型，鹿减少了也许是因为鹿迁徙到其他更适合它生活得地方了”这样更加有说服力，可是“也许鹿迁徙到其他适合它生活得地方了”也很有说服力。这样该怎么取舍呢。我写作文经常会遇到这样的问题。先谢谢你了哦）

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

5# sha-shine
我认为，首段可按这个顺序和大致内容写：“作者根据当地猎人的报告北极鹿的数量正在下降，又根据另一个报告推出：北极鹿的下降时他们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。可是我并不这么认为…”
因为这些内容刚好是你下文所要驳斥的，而且也是按你驳斥的顺序写。这样容易让判卷人认为你的文章很有条理

很同意！
然后你问的那个。。。我有点confused也~。。。咱么讨论的时候再说吧，说得清楚一点，怎么样？